关键词: 减畜意愿, 资本禀赋, 政策感知, 有序Probit模型, 世界自然遗产地

Abstract: Herders’ behaviour of reducing grazing is one of the most effective ways to curb the degradation of grassland ecological environment. Based on the field survey data of 187 herder families in the Bayinbuluke World Natural Heritage Site,this study analyzed the impact of capital endowment and policy perception on herders’ willingness to reduce livestock quantities,by using the ordered Probit regression model. The results showed that the financial capital,material capital,natural capital and human capital of herders had no significant impact on their willingness to reduce livestock. Cultural capital had a positive impact on the herders’ willingness to reduce livestock,while social capital had a negative impact on the herders’ willingness to reduce livestock. The policy supervision could restrain the overloaded grazing behaviour by affecting the herders’ psychological expectation of “cost for overgrazing violation”,and whether the amount of subsidies could make up for the economic losses caused by the reduction of livestock is the key to affect the herdsmen’s willingness to reduce livestock. Based on the results of the study,the following suggestions are put forward:strengthen the publicity and guidance of grassland ecological protection policy,and formulate reasonable supervision measures in the light of the customs and living characteristics of local herders,give full play to the binding effect of social norms such as village rules and non-governmental regulations on overloaded grazing behaviour;actively promote the livelihood transformation of herders and reduce their dependence on grasslands and animal husbandry.

Key words: Willingness to reduce livestock, Capital endowment, Policy perception, Ordered probit model, World natural heritage site