草地学报

草地学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (12): 3820-3830.DOI: 10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2023.12.028

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

草原资源约束与中国畜牧业经济增长的时空格局演变——基于“尾效”模型检验

李先东1,2, 韩瑛1, 夏咏1   

  1. 1. 新疆农业大学经济管理学院, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830052;
    2. 新疆农业大学干旱区生态经济与畜牧业高质量发展中心, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830052
  • 收稿日期:2023-04-19 修回日期:2023-08-01 出版日期:2023-12-15 发布日期:2024-01-03
  • 通讯作者: 夏咏,E-mail:63707679@qq.com
  • 作者简介:李先东(1988-)，男，汉族，安徽阜阳人，博士，副教授，主要从事草原经济与政策研究，E-mail:xjxiandong@nwafu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    教育部人文社科基金青年项目，生态脆弱区农业产业融合发展研究(22YJC790063)；新疆维吾尔自治区天山创新团队项目，草原旅游生态安全评估创新团队(2022D14005)；中国科学院A类战略性先导，科技专项“创建生态草牧业科技体系”(XDA26010301)子课题“新疆县域畜牧资源调研与评估”,新疆维吾尔自治区研究生创新项目，不确定性与新疆牧民生计韧性研究(XJ2023G141)资助

Grassland Resource Constraints and Spatial-temporal Pattern Evolution of Chinese Animal Husbandry Economic Growth—Testing Based on the “Tail Effect” Model

LI Xian-dong1,2, HAN Ying1, XIA Yong1   

  1. 1. College of Economics and Management, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830052, China;
    2. Center for Ecological Economy of Arid Regions and High-Quality Development of Animal Husbandry, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830052, China
  • Received:2023-04-19 Revised:2023-08-01 Online:2023-12-15 Published:2024-01-03

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摘要： 草原资源是维持畜牧业生产的重要物质资料，以其独特的生态功能和生产功能约束着畜牧业可持续发展。本文以中国主要畜牧产区为研究对象，基于1998—2020省级面板数据，通过资源尾效模型实证分析畜牧经济增长受资源约束的现状，进一步采用ArcGIS软件解析畜牧业经济增长尾效的空间特征和差异。结果表明：畜牧业经济增长对草原资源数量的依赖程度较高，尾效均值为0.038 7；资源尾效总体呈东高西低、北高南低分布，部分地区存在资源优势；草原资源弹性系数、资本弹性系数、劳动力增长率与草原资源消耗增长率是制约草原资源“尾效”的关键因素，资源消耗速度越快，经济增长阻力越大。在其他条件不变的情况下，资本、劳动供给水平的大幅波动也会使尾效值增加。

关键词: 草原资源约束, 畜牧经济增长, 资源尾效

Abstract: Grassland resource is an important material resources to maintain livestock production,and would imposed some constrains on the sustainable development of the livestock industry with its unique ecological function and productivities. This paper took China's major livestock production areas as the research object,based on the provincial panel data from 1998 to 2020,empirically analyzed the current situation of livestock economic growth constrained by resources through the resource tailing model,and further dissected the spatial characteristics and differences of the tailing effect of livestock economic growth by using ArcGIS software. The results showed that:the economic growth of the animal husbandry industry relied on the quantity of grassland resources to a high degree,and the average value of the tail effect was 0.038 7;the resource tail effect was generally distributed in the east-high and west-low,in the north high and south low spatially,and there was a resource advantage in some areas. The grassland resource elasticity coefficient,the capital elasticity coefficient,the growth rate of the labor force and the growth rate of the grassland resource consumption were the key factors to take a "tail effect" on the grassland resource. The faster the rate of resource consumption,the greater the resistance to economic growth. Under that the other conditions remaining unchang,large fluctuations in the level of capital and labor supply would also cause an increase of the tail effect.

Key words: Grassland resource constraint, Animal husbandry economic growth, Resource drag

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