关键词: 牧户, 气候变化, 适应性行为, 生计脆弱性, 草原生态补奖政策, 门槛效应

Abstract: Basing on the livelihood vulnerability assessment framework， this study constructed a theoretical model of herders’ livelihood vulnerability. Using field survey data from 414 herder households in the pastoral areas of Inner Mongolia， the comprehensive index method was employed to evaluate their livelihood vulnerability. Furthermore， an Ordinary Least Squares （OLS） regression model was applied to analyze the impacts of herders’ climate change adaptation behaviors on their livelihood vulnerability. The results indicated a correlation between herders’ livelihood vulnerability and grassland resource endowments. Furthermore， adaptation behaviors such as purchasing forage and increasing the number of days of stall-feeding were found to exacerbate their livelihood vulnerability. Adaptation measures， such as selling weak livestock， constructing sheds， adjusting livestock composition， and well-digging， had a mitigating effect on herders’ livelihood vulnerability. The impact of grassland ecological compensation and reward policies on livelihood vulnerability exhibited a threshold effect and heterogeneity. Based on the research conclusions， the following recommendations were proposed： creating a pastoral innovation network， providing climate-adaptive technical guidance， and establishing a dynamic adjustment mechanism to formulate regionally differentiated compensation and reward standards. These measures aimed to serve as a reference for the government in formulating effective policies to alleviate herders’ livelihood vulnerability， enhance their capacity to withstand climate change shocks， and promote the sustainable development of animal husbandry.

Key words: Herder households, Climate change, Adaptive behaviors, Livelihood vulnerability, Grassland Ecological Compensation and Reward Policy, Threshold effect