Abstract: Herders’ behaviour of reducing grazing is one of the most effective ways to curb the degradation of grassland ecological environment. Based on the field survey data of 187 herder families in the Bayinbuluke World Natural Heritage Site,this study analyzed the impact of capital endowment and policy perception on herders’ willingness to reduce livestock quantities,by using the ordered Probit regression model. The results showed that the financial capital,material capital,natural capital and human capital of herders had no significant impact on their willingness to reduce livestock. Cultural capital had a positive impact on the herders’ willingness to reduce livestock,while social capital had a negative impact on the herders’ willingness to reduce livestock. The policy supervision could restrain the overloaded grazing behaviour by affecting the herders’ psychological expectation of “cost for overgrazing violation”,and whether the amount of subsidies could make up for the economic losses caused by the reduction of livestock is the key to affect the herdsmen’s willingness to reduce livestock. Based on the results of the study,the following suggestions are put forward:strengthen the publicity and guidance of grassland ecological protection policy,and formulate reasonable supervision measures in the light of the customs and living characteristics of local herders,give full play to the binding effect of social norms such as village rules and non-governmental regulations on overloaded grazing behaviour;actively promote the livelihood transformation of herders and reduce their dependence on grasslands and animal husbandry.

Key words: Willingness to reduce livestock, Capital endowment, Policy perception, Ordered probit model, World natural heritage site

摘要： 牧民的减畜行为是遏制草原生态环境退化最有效的方法之一。本研究基于巴音布鲁克世界自然遗产地187户牧民的实地调查数据,运用有序Probit回归模型分析了牧民的资本禀赋与政策感知对减畜意愿的影响。研究发现:牧民的金融资本、物质资本、自然资本和人力资本对其减畜意愿的影响不显著,文化资本对牧民的减畜意愿具有正向影响,社会资本对牧民的减畜意愿具有负向影响;政策监督力度通过影响牧民对“违规成本”的心理预期来抑制超载放牧行为,补助金额能否弥补减畜带来的经济损失是影响牧民减畜意愿的关键所在。基于研究结果提出以下建议:加强草原生态保护政策的宣传和引导力度,并结合当地牧民的风俗习惯与生活特点制定合理的监管措施,充分发挥村规民约等社会规范对超载放牧行为的约束作用;积极推动牧民的生计转型,减小对草原和畜牧业的依赖程度。

关键词: 减畜意愿, 资本禀赋, 政策感知, 有序Probit模型, 世界自然遗产地