关键词: FLUS模型, InVEST模型, 水源涵养, 多情景预测

Abstract: Land use is an important driver on water-holding functions in terrestrial ecosystem. With the global climate changing,the problem of water shortage in Junggar Banner is becoming more and more serious. In this study,the land use changes in Junggar Banner in 2040 under the scenarios of the ordinary development,the urban development and the ecological protection were predicted by the FLUS model,and the temporal and spatial changes in water conservation in that Banner were analyzed by the InVEST model. The results show that the Kappa coefficients of the FLUS model simulation under the three scenarios were 0.87,0.88,and 0.83,all higher than 0.80,indicating that the FLUS model could effectively simulate the land succession in the study area. Using the InVEST model,the minimum water conservation capacity under the urban development scenario by 2040 was 2.98×10⁸ m³,and the maximum water conservation capacity under the ecological protection scenario 3.37×10⁸ m³. The water conservation capacity in the whole Banner was generally characterized by the basic spatial distribution pattern as "high in its eastern part and low in its western" and "high in its northern part and low in its southern". According to the difference of water source containment capacity per km²of each land use type,their intensities ranked as the following order:grassland>forestland>cropland>waterbody>construction land>unutilized land. Through the study of land use status and water conservation function of Junggar Banner can provide management suggestions for planning ecological protection areas and provide theoretical support for social and economic development.

Key words: FLUS model, InVEST model, Water source conservation, Multi scenario prediction