草地学报

草地学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (3): 919-928.DOI: 10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2025.03.026

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    

“粮改饲”试点政策的农户增收效应研究

张文娥1, 谢先雄2, 赵银波3, 陈帅4, 赵敏娟5,6   

  1. 1. 甘肃农业大学财经学院, 甘肃 兰州 730000;
    2. 湖南农业大学经济学院, 湖南 长沙 410000;
    3. 甘肃省镇原县畜牧兽医站, 甘肃 庆阳 744500;
    4. 陕西省畜牧产业试验示范中心, 陕西 西安 713702;
    5. 西北农林科技大学经济管理学院, 陕西 杨凌 712100;
    6. 西安财经大学, 陕西 西安 710000
  • 收稿日期:2024-04-11 修回日期:2024-11-28 发布日期:2025-04-07
  • 通讯作者: 赵敏娟,E-mail:minjuan.zhao@nwsuaf.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:张文娥（1993-）,女,汉族,甘肃定西人,博士,主要从事农业经济管理研究,E-mail：Zhangwe19@nwafu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家燕麦荞麦产业技术体系（CARS-07-F-1）资助

Research on the Income Increasing Effect of Farmers in the “Replace Grain Crop with Feed Crop” Pilot Policy

ZHANG Wen-e1, XIE Xian-xiong2, ZHAO Yin-bo3, CHEN Shuai4, ZHAO Min-juan5,6   

  1. 1. College of Finance and Economic, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou, Gansu Province 730000, China;
    2. College of Economic, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha, Hunan Province 410000, China;
    3. Zhenyuan County Livestock and Veterinary Station Gansu Province, Qingyang, Gansu Province 744500, China;
    4. Shaanxi Provincial Livestock Industry Experimental Demonstration Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi Province 713702, China;
    5. College of Economics &Management, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi Province 712100, China;
    6. Xi'an University of Finance and Economics, Xi'an, Shaanxi Province 710000, China
  • Received:2024-04-11 Revised:2024-11-28 Published:2025-04-07

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摘要： “粮改饲”试点政策是优化农业结构、助推草食畜牧业高质量发展的重要途径,也是保障农户收入的重要手段。本研究基于农牧交错带陕西、甘肃两省1464个农户调查数据,运用内生转换回归模型（Endogenous switching regression model,ESR）,实证检验了“粮改饲”试点政策对农户收入的影响及其异质性。研究发现：在反事实假设情境下,如果参与“粮改饲”试点政策的农户未参与该试点政策,其收入将下降17.91%；这一增收效应在不同收入水平的农户之间存在差异,具体体现在“粮改饲”试点政策对高收入农户的增收效应更为明显。进一步地,异质性分析证实,农户参与“粮改饲”试点政策的增收效应在不同改种程度（青贮玉米种植面积占全部耕种面积的比重）和不同养殖规模间均存在显著差异（P<0.01）,表现为改种程度在75~100之间、养殖规模在30~100个羊单位之间的农户群体增收效应最大,分别为0.946和0.660。

关键词: “粮改饲”试点政策, 农户增收效应, 内生转换回归模型

Abstract: The pilot policy of “replace grain crop with feed crop” is an important way to adjust and optimize the agricultural structure and promote the high-quality development of animal husbandry, and ensuring farmers’ income is an important prerequisite for the implementation and continuous promotion of the pilot policy of “replace grain crop with feed crop”. Based on the survey data of 1464 farmers in Shaanxi and Gansu provinces in the agro-pastoral zone, this paper used an endogenous switching regression model （ESR） to empirically test the impact and heterogeneity of the “replace grain crop with feed crop” pilot policy on farmers’ income. Research found that： under the counterfactual assumption scenario, if farmers who have participated in the pilot policy of “replace grain crop with feed crop” did not participate, their income would decrease by 17.91%. This income increasing effect varies among farmers with different income levels, specifically the more significant income increasing effect of the “replace grain crop with feed crop” pilot policy on high-income farmers. In addition, heterogeneity analysis confirms that there are significant differences in the income increasing effect of farmers’ participation in the “replace grain crop with feed crop” pilot policy among different levels of planting （the proportion of silage corn planting area to total cultivated area） and different livestock farming scales（P<0.01）. Specifically, the group of farmers with planting levels between 75 and 100 and livestock farming scales between 30 and 100 sheep units has the greatest income increasing effect, with values of 0.946 and 0.660, respectively.

Key words: "replace grain crop with feed crop" pilot policy, The effect of increasing farmers’ income, Endogenous switching regression model

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