Abstract: This study aimed to verify the applicability of the Agricultural production System sIMulator (APSIM) alfalfa sub-model to the alfalfa production in Jinzhong Basin, Shanxi Province, by taking a basis of the field observation of six alfalfa (Medicago sativa) cultivars and the meteorological data in the region. The parameters of APSIM were calibrated and verified, then different water treatments and precipitation/temperature gradients were set up for scenario simulation to investigate the productivity and adaptability of each alfalfa cultivar. The results showed that the R² (Correlation coefficient), RMSE (Root mean square error), NRMSE (Normalized root mean square error) and D (Index of agreement) index of hay yield were 0.82~0.98, 440~633 kg·hm^-2, 10.57%~14.98% and 0.90~0.96, respectively. In the scenario simulation, the effects of water treatment and precipitation gradient on alfalfa hay yield were extremely significant (P<0.01). The YLR (Yield loss rate) of each alfalfa cultivar was significantly different between temperature, precipitation gradient and water treatment (P<0.01), among which the highest value of YLR occurred under only rain-fed (RF). Although the potential yield was not fully taken place, the "WL" series cultivars showed better production adaptability in the Jinzhong Basin of Shanxi Province than others did;APSIM model had a good capability to simulate the alfalfa productivity in study region, and had a certain guiding significance for the forage prodcution management in the area.

Key words: APSIM, Alfalfa, Jinzhong Basin, Productivity

摘要： 为验证农业生产系统模型（Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator，APSIM）-苜蓿模型对山西晋中盆地地区的适应性，本研究基于晋中市太谷区6个紫花苜蓿（Medicago sativa）品种的田间观测数据和同期气象资料对模型进行校准，并设置不同水分处理与降水/气温梯度进行情景模拟，分析各品种的生产力及适应性。结果表明：APSIM模拟各茬紫花苜蓿干草产量的决定系数（Correlation coefficient，R²）为0.82~0.98，均方根误差（Root mean square error，RMSE）为440~633 kg·hm^-2，均一化均方根误差（Normalized root mean square error，NRMSE）为10.57%~14.98%，D指数（Index of agreement）为0.90~0.96，拟合度较高；情景模拟中，不同水分处理和降水梯度对紫花苜蓿产草量的效应极显著（P<0.01），但气温梯度间紫花苜蓿产草量的差异不显著；各紫花苜蓿品种的产量损失率（Yield lose rate，YLR）在不同温度、降水梯度和水分处理间差异显著（P<0.01），且雨养处理下YLR最高。虽未能充分发挥潜在产量，但总体而言"WL"系列品种在山西晋中盆地地区具有更好的生产适应性；APSIM模型对研究区紫花苜蓿生产有较好的模拟能力，对该地区的牧草种植管理具有一定指导意义。

关键词: APSIM模型, 紫花苜蓿, 晋中盆地, 生产力