Abstract: The model was set up with the data observed at the fixed position for many years and the data of climatic factors observed simultaneously to indicate the climatic production potentiality of range under the influence of actual light, temperature and water,etc. The relation between the distribution of actually climatic productivity of alpine meadow and the environmental conditions was analyzed,and the climatic productivity is calculated when air temperature increased by 2℃ and 4℃ and precipitation increased by 10% and 20%,respectively.The results showed that the range productivity would be decreased by 10% or increased by 1% under above two climatic scenario.Climatic warming could decrease or buffer the unfavorable effect of low temperature on the growth of herbs on the alpine meadow to a certain degree.The increase in evaporation of the earths surface and vegetation was quicker than the increase of precipitation,therefore,water would be the crucial factors of growth of herbs.

Key words: Climatic change, Alpine meadow, Climatic production potentiality

摘要： 利用多年定位测定的草地生产力资料及同步气象因素观测数据,建立现实状况下光、温、水影响草地气候生产潜力模型 在分析现实高寒草旬气候生产力分布与环境条件关系的同时,根据该模型模拟计算未来气温升高2℃和4℃,降水增加10 %和20%状况下的气候生产力情景。在上述两种气候情景下,未来草地生产力分别出现降低(10%)和升高(1%)的两种可能。气候变暖在一定程度上减少和缓和低温对高寒草甸牧草生长的不利影响,但地表及植被的蒸散量的加大远比降水增加的快,水分则成为牧草生长的限制因素。

关键词: 气候变化, 高寒草甸, 气候生产潜力