Prediction Model of Herbivores Production in Southern China——Dao County As a Typical Feeding Area

doi:10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2012.01.029

›› 2012, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (1): 183-188.DOI: 10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2012.01.029

Previous Articles Next Articles

Prediction Model of Herbivores Production in Southern China——Dao County As a Typical Feeding Area

WEN Shi-lin^1,2,3, LIU Qiang¹, RONG Xiang-min¹, DONG Chun-hua^1,2,3, GAO Ju-sheng^2,3, ZHOU Sheng-ming⁴

1. College of Resource and Environment, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha, Hunan Province 410128, China;
2. Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning CAAS, Qiyang Agro-ecosystem of National Field Experimental Station, Qiyang, Hunan Province 426182, China;
3. Institute of Agricultural Resources and Gegional Planning CAAS, Ministry of Agriculture Key Laboratory of Crop Nutrition and Fertilization, Beijing 100081, China;
4. Changsha Workstation of Soil and Fertilizer, Changsha, Hunan Provicne 410013, China

Received:2011-09-19 Revised:2011-11-11 Online:2012-02-15 Published:2012-07-06

南方草食动物生产预测模型——以湖南道县为例

文石林^1,2,3, 刘强¹, 荣湘民¹, 董春华^1,2,3, 高菊生^2,3, 周升明⁴

1. 湖南农业大学资源环境学院, 湖南长沙410128;
2. 中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所祁阳农田生态系统国家野外试验站, 湖南祁阳426182;
3. 中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所农业部作物营养与施肥重点开放实验室, 北京100081;
4. 长沙市土壤肥料工作站, 湖南长沙410013

作者简介:文石林(1964- ),男,湖南宁乡人,研究员,博士,长期从事土壤改良与植物营养研究,E-mail:shilin.wen@tom.com
基金资助:
国家科技支撑计划重点项目(2009BADC6B05)(2006BAD05B09)(2006BAD25B08)资助

Abstract

Abstract: In order to determine a reasonable number of livestock for ensuring necessary ecosystems in southern China(Dao County as a typical feeding area),several forage resources and calculation methods were systematically analyzed.Using the potential development of herbivores,a forecast model for balance between forage resources and herbivores was established.This model was verified effectively by Dao County and its composition,application and insufficiency were introduced.The model can predict and advise users how to arrange livestock production efficiently after applying local data.The potential development of herbivores in south China can be forecasted and a reasonable number of livestock can be ascertained for feeding areas through the forecast model to determine relative dynamic equilibrium between forage resource and herbivore amount.This forecast model has practical value for guiding animal husbandry development in south China.

Key words: South China, Forage resources, Herbivores, Dynamic equilibrium, Forecast model

摘要： 为促使中国南方拥有合理的载畜量和保证其生态系统的良性循环,以湖南道县为南方养殖典型区示例,系统分析南方饲草资源的种类,及其总量计算的方法,探讨南方草食动物发展的潜力,并在此基础上建立草畜平衡的预测模型,并以道县为例对模型进行了验证,同时介绍了该模型的组成和使用情况及其不足。养殖户只需输入一些基本信息,该模型就会以图示方式直观地指导用户进行畜牧生产活动。同时,通过该模型的预测,可以了解南方畜牧业的发展潜力,使畜牧区拥有合理的载畜量,从而使草畜之间达到相对动态平衡。该预测模型的建立对南方畜牧业的发展有着重要的指导意义。

关键词: 中国南方, 饲草资源, 草食动物, 动态平衡, 预测模型

CLC Number:

WEN Shi-lin, LIU Qiang, RONG Xiang-min, DONG Chun-hua, GAO Ju-sheng, ZHOU Sheng-ming. Prediction Model of Herbivores Production in Southern China——Dao County As a Typical Feeding Area[J]. , 2012, 20(1): 183-188.

文石林, 刘强, 荣湘民, 董春华, 高菊生, 周升明. 南方草食动物生产预测模型——以湖南道县为例[J]. , 2012, 20(1): 183-188.

0
/ / Recommend

Add to citation manager EndNote|Ris|BibTeX

URL: https://manu40.magtech.com.cn/Jweb_cdxb/EN/10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2012.01.029

https://manu40.magtech.com.cn/Jweb_cdxb/EN/Y2012/V20/I1/183

References

[1] 盖德军.浅谈中国畜牧业发展存在的问题与对策[J].畜牧兽医科技信息,2008(8):1
[2] 吴限.我国畜牧业调整的目标与保证措施[J].农林工程,2009(24):224
[3] 任继周,林慧龙,侯向阳.发展草地农业确保中国食物安全[J].中国农业科学,2007,40(3):614-621
[4] 赵建军,郭玲利."猪-沼-果"循环农业模式的技术经济分析[J].四川农业大学学报,2009,27(2):239-242
[5] 白慧强,文亦芾.我国南方林间草地放牧利用存在的问题及发展对策[J].草业与畜牧,2007(8):53-55
[6] 王素珍,谢帆.我国南方的草地资源与草地牧业[J].江西师范大学报:自然科学版,1989,13(4):52-58
[7] 王素珍,谢帆.我国南方草地资源及其利用[J].草地学报,1991,1(1):1-9
[8] 黎强,刘德洪,薛翠云.南方农区肉牛养殖发展模式探讨[J].现代农村科技,2009(19):36-37
[9] 任继周,南志标,林慧龙.以食物系统保证食物(含粮食)安全-实行草地农业,全面发展食物系统生产潜力[J].草业学报,2005,14(3):1-11
[10] 任继周,林慧龙.农区种草是改进农业系统、保证粮食安全的重大步骤[J].草业学报,2009,18(5):1-9
[11] 卢晓云.叶尔羌河流域牲畜发展指标预测[J].水利规划与设计,2010(1):50-51
[12] 李顺.中国畜牧业发展历程分析及趋势预测[J].畜牧经济,2010,46(12):25-28,31
[13] 侯永新,李琦.中国牛产业发展趋势预测[J].中国兽医科技,2002,32(4):4
[14] 王学萌,罗建军.灰色系统预测决策建模程序集[M].北京:科学普及出版社,1986
[15] 杨汝荣,蒋世奎,陈永瑞.红壤丘陵区果园内套种牧草的综合效益分析[J].资源科学,1998,20(S1):66-70,65
[16] 张红旗,李家永.赣中红壤丘陵区草食畜牧业发展潜力及其经济效益评价[J].资源科学,2002,24(4):61-67
[17] 文石林,董春华,荣湘民,等.道县发展草食动物的资源与潜力分析[J].现代农业科技,2010(19):284-285
[18] 董春华,文石林.道县发展草食动物潜力可期[J].中国牧业通讯,2010(17):20-21
[19] 何余湧,John Nolan,谢国强,等.南方红壤地区种草养牛生产中计算机辅助系统的开发应用研究[J].农业网络信息,2005(12):103-104
[20] Belhouchette H,Donatelli M,Braudeau E,et al.Test of cropping systems model CropSyst in Tunisian conditions[C].Proceedings of the 2nd International Symposium Modelling Cropping Systems.Florence(Italy),2001:16-18
[21] Seliman N G A.Critical appraisal of some grassland models[C].Critical Evaluation of Systems Analysis in Ecosystems Research and Management,1976:60-97
[22] 李博.中国北方草地畜牧业动态监测研究(一)——草地畜牧业动态监测系统设计与区域实践[M].北京:中国农业科技出版社,1993
[23] 魏玉蓉,郝璐,贺俊杰.中国北方草地畜牧业监测预测系统的研制与应用[J].草业科学,2005,22(5):59-64
[24] 白永飞,许志信.降水量的季节分配对羊草草原群落地上部生物量影响的数学模型[J].草业学报,1997,6(2):1-6
[25] 刘伟,周立,周华坤,等.嵩草草甸退化预测模型的初步研究[J].草地学报,2004,12(1):60-65
[26] 施大钊,食旭疆.改进草原鼠虫害预警系统的管理[J].草地学报,2005,13(1):71-74
[27] 吴克谦.南方山区草地畜牧业开发中的几个问题[J].四川草原,1990(3):5-8
[28] 邢廷铣.我国南方草地资源开发利用模式的探讨[J].草业科学,2002,19(5):1-5

Prediction Model of Herbivores Production in Southern China——Dao County As a Typical Feeding Area

南方草食动物生产预测模型——以湖南道县为例

PDF

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 4

Recommended Articles

Metrics

Comments

[1]	LIU Wei, ZHOU Li, ZHOU Hua-kun, WANG Xi. A Preliminary Study on Kobresia Meadow Degradation Forecast Model [J]. , 2004, 12(1): 60-65.
[2]	Liu Changzhong, Feng Guanghan, Wang Baomei, Wu Dongguo, Zhi Hua, Feng Guanghan. Studies on the Biology and Ecology of Chorthippus fallax (Zubovsky) [J]. , 1997, 5(4): 269-274.
[3]	Li Jie, Zhang Qingbin, Yang Gang . Medicago in China and the Resource Superiority in Xinjiang [J]. , 1997, 5(4): 286-291.
[4]	Wang Suzhen, Xie Fan. THE GRASSLAND RESOURCES AND UTILIZATION IN SOUTH CHINA [J]. , 1991, 1(1): 1-9.