Abstract: An optimization plan and management strategy for maintaining the balance of forge supplement and livestock request in Maqu county according to proposal of planning period 2010 to 2012 were studied using the statistical data from the dynamic monitoring of grassland livestock husbandry,and the social economic survey with the support of multi-objective programming module in MATLAB 7.9.The optimization of herd structure,the goal of livestock production,and the environmental protection were critical factors of management strategy.Two optimization plans of different economic benefits were analyzed.Results showed that the controlling livestock number was a fundamental approach to realize this planning goal.Specific measures include an adjustment of livestock numbers and the optimization population structure of livestock.The optimum proposal demonstrated that the balance of forge and livestock would get if cut down 149.18×10⁴ SU in Maqu county.The herdsman would gain maximum profit if the market rate of herd was over 31% by improving efficiency of livestock husbandry.In addition,at least 40000 kg concentrated feed would be needed to supplement demands in Maqu county every year.Broadening trade and developing tourist industry would also enhance the flexibility of this area’s economy.

Key words: Maqu county, Balance of forage and livestock, Multi-objective optimization plan, Management decision-making

摘要： 利用玛曲县2001-2009年的草地畜牧业动态监测资料和社会经济统计数据,通过MATLAB 7.9软件的多目标规划方法,以维持草畜平衡、优化畜群结构和保护草地生态环境为总目标,综合考虑畜群结构优化、牧业生产、生态保护3个方面的约束条件,研究了规划期(2010-2012年)玛曲县草地畜牧业发展的优化方案及管理对策,对比分析了2套不同收入水平的优化方案。结果表明:减少家畜数量,加大周转是实现上述目标的根本途径,其具体措施包括调整牲畜数量和优化畜群结构。优化方案表明玛曲县若减少149.18×10⁴ SU后,能实现草畜平衡;提高出栏率,增强畜牧业生产效益,从优化方案中发现出栏率保持在31%以上能够使牧民收益最大化;增加补饲,全县每年至少补饲精饲料4万kg;拓宽经济收益渠道,发展旅游等其他产业,将增强该县经济弹性。

关键词: 玛曲县, 草畜平衡, 多目标优化, 管理决策