Simulation of Elymus sibiricus L. Distribution in Tibetan Plateau Based on MaxEnt Model

doi:10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2021.02.020

Acta Agrestia Sinica ›› 2021, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (2): 374-382.DOI: 10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2021.02.020

Simulation of Elymus sibiricus L. Distribution in Tibetan Plateau Based on MaxEnt Model

HAN Meng-li¹, BAI Shi-qie², SUN Sheng-nan¹, YAN Jia-jun², ZHANG Chuang-jie¹, ZHANG Chang-bing², ZHANG Jing-xue¹, YOU Ming-hong², LI Da-xu², YAN Xue-bing¹

1. Yangzhou University College of Animal Science and Technology, Yangzhou, Jiangsu Provence 225000, China;
2. Sichuan Academy of Grassland Science, Chengdu, Provence 610000, China

Received:2020-09-17 Revised:2020-11-19 Online:2021-02-15 Published:2021-02-25

基于MaxEnt模型青藏高原老芒麦适生区模拟预测

韩梦丽¹, 白史且², 孙盛楠¹, 鄢家俊², 张传杰¹, 张昌兵², 张靖雪¹, 游明鸿², 李达旭², 严学兵¹

1. 扬州大学动物科学与技术学院, 江苏扬州 225000;
2. 四川草原科学研究院, 四川成都 610000

通讯作者: 严学兵
作者简介:韩梦丽(1995-),女,汉族,硕士研究生,主要从事分子生态学研究,E-mail:hanmengli0923@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金“青藏高原两种重要披碱草属植物谱系地理式样及其形成的种群遗传机制”（31872995）资助

Abstract

Abstract: The study used the MaxEnt model to simulate the historical,current and future distribution trends of the specie E. sibiricus L. Dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of E. sibiricus L were filtered out using the knifecutting method. Furthermore,ArcGis natural breaks method was used to divide fitness levels and calculate the suitable growth area by Zonal Statistic. Results showed that E. sibiricus L. mainly distributed in the eastern part of the Tibetan Plateau. Since the LIG,the suitable growth area had been gradually decreasing. During the last glacial maximum,E. sibiricus L moved to the east of Hengduan Mountains,and parts of Western Himalaya became highly adapted regions. In 2080,E. sibiricus L. could expand to the eastern edge of Tibetan Plateau,however,the overall distribution had not obvious change and was relatively stable. Synthesizing the changes of distribution pattern in four periods,E. sibiricus L. experienced the distribution change of first contraction,then expansion and then contraction. Among the 20 environmental variables,the main factors affecting the distribution of E. sibiricus L. were temperature,precipitation and altitude,and the cumulative contribution rate reached 95.3%.

Key words: Elymus sibiricus L., MaxEnt, ArcGis, Suitable growth zone, Environmental factor, Tibetan plateau

摘要： 本研究以青藏高原地区老芒麦（Elymus sibiricus L.）为研究对象，通过MaxEnt模型模拟预测其在青藏高原的分布格局，利用刀切法（Jackknife）筛选出影响老芒麦分布的主导环境因子，运用ArcGis软件对不同时期的老芒麦进行适生等级划分以及适生面积的计算。结果表明：老芒麦主要分布在青藏高原的东部地区。自末次间冰期（LIG）以来，老芒麦非适生区面积越来越大，在末次冰期盛冰期时，老芒麦向横断山脉东部移动，喜马拉雅西部部分地区成为老芒麦的高适生区。在2080年，老芒麦很可能向青藏高原东部边缘地区扩张，但总体上的的分布没有明显变化，比较稳定。综合4个时期的适生区分析，老芒麦经历了先收缩再扩大再收缩的变化。关键环境因子评估结果显示，影响老芒麦分布的主要环境因子是温度、降水和海拔，累计贡献率高达95.3%。

关键词: 老芒麦, MaxEnt, 最大熵模型, 适生区, 环境因子, 青藏高原

CLC Number:

S543.9

HAN Meng-li, BAI Shi-qie, SUN Sheng-nan, YAN Jia-jun, ZHANG Chuang-jie, ZHANG Chang-bing, ZHANG Jing-xue, YOU Ming-hong, LI Da-xu, YAN Xue-bing. Simulation of Elymus sibiricus L. Distribution in Tibetan Plateau Based on MaxEnt Model[J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2021, 29(2): 374-382.

韩梦丽, 白史且, 孙盛楠, 鄢家俊, 张传杰, 张昌兵, 张靖雪, 游明鸿, 李达旭, 严学兵. 基于MaxEnt模型青藏高原老芒麦适生区模拟预测[J]. 草地学报, 2021, 29(2): 374-382.

0
/ / Recommend

Add to citation manager EndNote|Ris|BibTeX

URL: https://manu40.magtech.com.cn/Jweb_cdxb/EN/10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2021.02.020

https://manu40.magtech.com.cn/Jweb_cdxb/EN/Y2021/V29/I2/374

References

[1] 黄帆,李俊,刘磊,等. 人工老化对老芒麦醇溶蛋白遗传完整性的影响[J]. 作物杂志,2019(5):52-56
[2] 郭连云,公保才让,张旭萍,等. 不同密度、不同刈割高度下老芒麦种群生物量的变化[J]. 草业与畜牧,2007(3):16-32
[3] 张晨妮,周青平,颜红波,等. PEG-6000对老芒麦种质材料萌发期抗旱性影响的研究[J]. 草业科学,2010,27(1):119-123
[4] 张春梅,汪新川,赵恒军. 老芒麦栽培技术探讨[J]. 畜牧与饲料科学,2009,30(3):158
[5] 刘玉萍,拉本,苏旭,等. 披碱草属植物的分类现状及主要存在的问题[J]. 青海师范大学学报(自科版),2014,30(1):31-37
[6] 苗佳敏,钟金城,陈智华. 披碱草属种质资源研究现状[J]. 草业与畜牧,2009(8):1-6
[7] Stocker T F,Qin D,Plattner G K,et al. IPCC,2013:The Physical Science Basis Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report[M/OL]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2013
[8] 段义忠,鱼慧,王海涛,等. 孑遗濒危植物四合木(Tetraena mongolica)的地理分布与潜在适生区预测[J]. 植物科学学报,2019,37(3):337-347
[9] 邹旭,彭冶,王璐,等. 末次盛冰期以来气候变化对中国山荆子分布格局的影响[J]. 植物科学学报,2018,36(5):676-686
[10] Brochmann C,Brysting A K,Alsos I G,et al. Polyploidy in arctic plants[J]. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society,2004,82(4):521-536
[11] Koch M A,Kiefer C,Ehrich D,et al. Three times out of Asia Minor:the phylogeography of Arabis alpina L. (Brassicaceae)[J]. Molecular Ecology,2010,15(3):825-839
[12] 胡忠俊,张镱锂,于海彬. 基于MaxEnt模型和GIS的青藏高原紫花针茅分布格局模拟[J]. 应用生态学报,2015,26(2):505-511
[13] 朱耿平,刘国卿,卜文俊,等. 生态位模型的基本原理及其在生物多样性保护中的应用[J].生物多样性,2013,21(1):90-98
[14] Steven J Phillips,Robert P Anderson,Robert E Schapire. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions[J]. Ecological Modelling,2006,190(3-4):231-259
[15] Phillips S J,Miroslav Dudík. Modeling of species distributions with Maxent:new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation[J]. Ecography,2008,31(2):161-175
[16] 毛志远,张兆金,周坚. 基于生态位模型的石蒜适生区预测[J]. 林业科技开发,2014,28(6):50-53
[17] 陈积山,刘杰淋,朱瑞芬等. 基于MaxEnt分析我国羊草分布区的生物气候特征[J]. 草地学报,2019,27(1):35-42
[18] 武自念,侯向阳,任卫波,等. 气候变化背景下我国扁蓿豆潜在适生区预测[J]. 草地学报,2018,26(4):898-906
[19] 郭斌,王珊,陈超,等. 气候变化背景下川西北高原多年生垂穗披碱草种植适生区分布预测[J]. 草地学报,2019,27(6):1596-1606
[20] 方亦午,刘乐乐,郭恺,等. 基于MaxEnt的苹果根结线虫在中国的适生区预测[J]. 植物检疫,2020,34(5):68-73
[21] 陈新美,雷渊才,张雄清,等. 样本量对MaxEnt模型预测物种分布精度和稳定性的影响[J].林业科学,2012,48(1):53-59
[22] Li R Q,Xu M,Wong M H G,et al. Climate change threatens giant panda protection in the 21st century[J]. Biological Conservation,2015,182:93-101
[23] 王茹琳,李庆,封传红,等. 基于MaxEnt的西藏飞蝗在中国的适生区预测[J]. 生态学报,2017,37(24):8556-8566
[24] Yang X Q,Kushwaha S P S,Saran S,et al. Maxent modeling for predicting the potential distribution of medicinal plant,Justicia adhatoda L. in Lesser Himalayan foothills[J]. Ecological Engineering,2013,51:83-87
[25] 陈林. 红火蚁(Solenopsis invicta)在我国的潜在分布研究[D]. 北京:中国农业科学院,2007:85-86
[26] 朱耿平,范靖宇,王梦琳,等. ROC曲线形状在生态位模型评价中的重要性——以美国白蛾为例[J]. 生物安全学报,2017,26(3):184-190
[27] 崔相艳,王文娟,杨小强,等. 基于生态位模型预测野生油茶的潜在分布[J]. 生物多样性,2016,24(10):1117-1128
[28] 龚晔,景鹏飞,魏宇昆,等. 中国珍稀药用植物白及的潜在分布与其气候特征[J]. 植物分类与资源学报,2014,36(2):237-244
[29] 李宁宁,张爱平,张林,等. 气候变化下青藏高原两种云杉植物的潜在适生区预测[J].植物研究,2019,39(3):395-406
[30] 祁娟,曹文侠,闫伟红. 披碱草属野生居群表型多样性及其与环境关系研究[J]. 西北植物学报,2013,33(5):1027-1033
[31] 中国气象局气候变化中心. 中国气候变化蓝皮书(2020)[M]. 北京:科学出版社,2020:25-69
[32] 祁娟. 披碱草属(Elymus L.)植物野生种质资源生态适应性研究[D]. 兰州:甘肃农业大学,2009:166-167
[33] Yan X B,Guo Y X,Zhao C,et al. Intra-population genetic diversity of two wheatgrass species along altitude gradients on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau:its implication for conservation and utilization[J]. Conservation Genetics,2009,10(2):359

Simulation of Elymus sibiricus L. Distribution in Tibetan Plateau Based on MaxEnt Model

基于MaxEnt模型青藏高原老芒麦适生区模拟预测

PDF

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 15

Recommended Articles

Metrics

Comments

[1]	LI Ruo-wei, YE Chong-chong, WANG Yi, HAN Guo-dong, SUN Jian. Carbon Storage Estimation and its Drivering Force Analysis Based on InVEST Model in the Tibetan Plateau [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2021, 29(S1): 43-51.
[2]	LAN Xiang-yu, YE Chong-chong, WANG Yi, ZENG Tao, SUN Jian. Spatiotemporal Variation Characteristics and Its Driving Forces of Water Conservation Function on the Tibetan Plateau from 1995 to 2014 [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2021, 29(S1): 80-92.
[3]	ZHANG Zhong-hua, MA Li, ZHOU Bing-rong, SONG Ming-hua, XU Wen-hua, DENG Yan-fang, WANG Fang, SHE Yan-di, ZHANG Qian, YAO Bu-qing, MA Zhen, ZHOU Hua-kun. Esponse of the Functional Diversity of Dominant Plants to Warming and Simulated Grazing in Alpine Meadow [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2021, 29(S1): 225-232.
[4]	WANG Tan-guo-yan, MA Zhi-yuan, LI Pei-yang, GUO Jun-hong, ZHANG Jia-yi, JIANG Sheng-jing. Effects of Short-Term Warming on Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi in the Rhizosphere of Different Plant Species in Alpine Meadows on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2021, 29(9): 1959-1966.
[5]	LI Chao, CHANG Xin, YAN Wei-dong, DONG Kuan-hu. Effects of Mowing on Greenhouse Gas Fluxes of Leymus secalinus Communities in Northwestern Shanxi Province [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2021, 29(1): 17-24.
[6]	MI Qi, WANG Yi, QIN Xiao-jing, SUN Jian, YE Chong-chong. Response of Soil Enzyme Stoichiometry to Different Enclosure Durations in Alpine Meadow,Tibetan Plateau [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2021, 29(1): 33-41.
[7]	YANG Hang, QI Juan, LIU Wen-hui, LIU Yan-jun, SU Jing-long, LI Ming. Fatty Acid Substance Detection and Self-toxic Effect in Rhizosphere Soil of Elymus sibiricus L. with Different Planting Years [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2021, 29(1): 52-59.
[8]	JIANG Cui-xia, HU Chang-sheng, WEI Hai-yan, WANG Xian-ju, DING Lu-ming. The Effect of Modulating Different Utilizing Intensity in Summer Season on Forage Quality and Soil Nutrients of Winter & Spring Pasture on Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2020, 28(5): 1473-1477.
[9]	YANG Hang, QI Juan, LI Yu-ying, LIU Yan-jun, WU Zhao-lin, JIN Xin. Effects of Different Ratio of Exogenous Hormones and Phosphate on the Growth and Nutritional Quality of Elymus sibiricus L. [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2020, 28(4): 1015-1023.
[10]	ZHANG Xiao-fang, ZHANG Chun-ping, DONG Quan-min, YANG Xiao-xia, LIU Wen-ting, YU Yang, YANG Zeng-zeng, WEI Lin-na, ZHANG Yan-fen, CHU Hui, Li Cai-di, FENG Bin. Study on Plant Community Structure Characteristics of Alpine Mixed-seeding Grassland in Three Rivers Source Regions [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2020, 28(4): 1090-1099.
[11]	ZHU Rui-fen, LIU Jie-lin, WANG Jian-li, HAN Wei-bo, SHEN Zhong-bao, LI Da. Study on Bacterial Community Diversity and Environmental Factors in Rhizosphere Soil of Leymuschinensis [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2020, 28(3): 652-660.
[12]	YANG Wei, LIU Wen-hui, MA Xiang, MA Hui-ling. Effects of ROS Accumulation and Antioxidant System in Two Different Drought Resistant Elymus sibiricus under Drought Stress [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2020, 28(3): 684-693.
[13]	Guo Bin, WANG San, CHEN Chao, WANG Ming-tian, LI Ting-ting. Distribution Prediction of Suitable Growth Area of Perennial Elymus nutans in the Northwest Plateau of Sichuan Province under Climate Change [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2019, 27(6): 1596-1606.
[14]	HAN Bing-hong, ZHOU Bing-rong, YAN Yu-qian, SHI Ming-ming, SU Shu-lan, ZHAO Heng-he, NIU De-cao, FU Hua. Analysis of Vegetation Coverage Change and Its Driving Factors over Tibetan Plateau From 2000 to 2008 [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2019, 27(6): 1651-1658.
[15]	CHEN Ji-shan, LIU Jie-lin, ZHU Rui-fen, LI Ji-kai, DI Gui-li, ZHANG Qiang, MAO Dong-jie, KONG Xiao-lei. Analysis of Suitable Bioclimatic Characteristics of Leymus chinensis Using MaxEnt Model [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2019, 27(1): 35-42.