Abstract: At present,climate change is threatening global biodiversity. Allium mongolicum is an important forage and community stable species in arid and semi-arid areas，but its natural distribution area is gradually shrinking and facing endangered situation. In order to explore the evolution process of natural populations of A.mongolicum in the future,this study applied species distribution data and 22 environmental variable data to predict the potential distribution pattern of A.mongolicum in northern China under three climate states (SSP126 sustainable development path,SSP245 moderate development path,SSP585 fossil fuel conventional development path) in current and future using MaxEnt model. The results showed that the model prediction AUC results was higher than 0.8,and the simulation effect was good. The dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of A.mongolicum were mean annual temperature,average temperature of the warmest season,mean annual precipitation and average precipitation in warmest season. Under different climate states,the potential suitable area of A.mongolicum would be reduced in the future. Under the effect of precipitation and temperature,the high suitable area would shrink and migrate to the Mongolian Plateau. In the future,the core suitable area of A.mongolicum would generally migrate to the southeast and then to the southwest. The reduction of potential suitable areas of A.mongolicum in the future would be mainly concentrated in Heilongjiang Province,northwestern Jilin Province and eastern Inner Mongolia.

Key words: MaxEnt model, Allium mongolicum, Habitat prediction, Migration route

摘要： 当前，气候变化正在威胁全球生物多样性。蒙古韭(Allium mongolicum)是干旱半干旱地区中重要的牧草以及群落稳定物种，目前其自然分布区域正逐渐缩减并面临濒危处境。为探究未来蒙古韭自然群体演化过程，本研究结合物种分布数据与22个环境变量数据，应用MaxEnt生态位模型对蒙古韭在近代以及未来3种气候情景下(SSP126可持续发展路径、SSP245中度发展路径、SSP585化石燃料常规发展路径)在我国北方地区的潜在分布格局进行了预测。结果表明：模型预测结果精度均大于0.8，模拟效果良好；影响蒙古韭分布的主导环境因子为年平均温度、最暖季平均温度、年均降水量和最暖季平均降水量；不同气候情景下未来蒙古韭潜在适生区面积均有所缩减，受降雨和温度影响，高适生区向蒙古高原地区收缩；未来蒙古韭核心适生区总体向东南方向迁移后再向西南方向迁移；蒙古韭未来潜在适生区缩减主要集中在黑龙江省、吉林省西北部和内蒙古东部。

关键词: MaxEnt模型, 蒙古韭, 生境预测, 迁移路线