Abstract: Land use is an important driver on water-holding functions in terrestrial ecosystem. With the global climate changing,the problem of water shortage in Junggar Banner is becoming more and more serious. In this study,the land use changes in Junggar Banner in 2040 under the scenarios of the ordinary development,the urban development and the ecological protection were predicted by the FLUS model,and the temporal and spatial changes in water conservation in that Banner were analyzed by the InVEST model. The results show that the Kappa coefficients of the FLUS model simulation under the three scenarios were 0.87,0.88,and 0.83,all higher than 0.80,indicating that the FLUS model could effectively simulate the land succession in the study area. Using the InVEST model,the minimum water conservation capacity under the urban development scenario by 2040 was 2.98×10⁸ m³,and the maximum water conservation capacity under the ecological protection scenario 3.37×10⁸ m³. The water conservation capacity in the whole Banner was generally characterized by the basic spatial distribution pattern as "high in its eastern part and low in its western" and "high in its northern part and low in its southern". According to the difference of water source containment capacity per km²of each land use type,their intensities ranked as the following order:grassland>forestland>cropland>waterbody>construction land>unutilized land. Through the study of land use status and water conservation function of Junggar Banner can provide management suggestions for planning ecological protection areas and provide theoretical support for social and economic development.

Key words: FLUS model, InVEST model, Water source conservation, Multi scenario prediction

摘要： 土地利用是生态系统水源涵养功能的一个重要驱动力。随着全球气候变化的发展，准格尔旗水源短缺问题日益严重。本研究基于FLUS模型预测自然发展、城市发展与生态保护情景下2040年准格尔旗土地利用变化，运用InVEST模型分析了准格尔旗水源涵养的时空变化，结果表明：三种情景下FLUS模型的Kappa系数为0.87,0.88和0.83，均大于 0.80，说明FLUS模式能很好地模拟研究区的土地演替。运用InVEST模型得出2040年城市发展情景水源涵养量最低为2.98×10⁸ m³，生态保护情景水源涵养量最多为3.37×10⁸ m³。全旗的水源涵养量总体表现为“东高西低”“北高南低”的基本分布模式。根据各土地利用类型单位面积水源涵养能力的差异，其强度按以下顺序排列：草地>林地>耕地>水域>建设用地>未利用土地。通过对准格尔旗的土地利用状况和水源涵养功能的研究，能够为规划生态保护区提供管理建议，为社会经济发展提供理论支撑。

关键词: FLUS模型, InVEST模型, 水源涵养, 多情景预测