Optimizing and Predicting the Potential Suitable Habitat of Stellera chamaejasme L. in Xizang Under Climate Change Using MaxEnt Model

doi:10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2025.08.021

Acta Agrestia Sinica ›› 2025, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (8): 2603-2617.DOI: 10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2025.08.021

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Optimizing and Predicting the Potential Suitable Habitat of Stellera chamaejasme L. in Xizang Under Climate Change Using MaxEnt Model

LI Hai-ming, XIE Wen-wen, SHEN Qiu-xiao-xiao, CHEN Jin-xun, SHEN Wan-qing, DANG Ming-yu, WANG Zhong-bin

Xizang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry University, Nyingchi, Xizang 860000, China

Received:2024-08-29 Revised:2024-11-11 Online:2025-08-15 Published:2025-08-27

MaxEnt模型优化预测气候变化下西藏瑞香狼毒潜在适生区

李海铭, 谢文文, 沈邱筱潇, 陈进勋, 申婉青, 党明雨, 王忠斌

西藏农牧学院, 西藏林芝 860000

通讯作者: 王忠斌, Email:0823yuan1020@162.com
作者简介:李海铭(1998-),女,汉族,贵州省贵阳人,硕士研究生,主要从事野生动植物研究,E-mail:984583653@qq.com
基金资助:
昌都市八宿县草原有害生物普查（2022）资助

Abstract

Abstract: This study focuses on Stellera chamaejasme L. as the research subject， utilizing climate factors from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 （CMIP6）， topographic data， and distribution point data of Stellera chamaejasme L. in Xizang. The ENMeval package of R was employed to optimize the feature class （FC） and regularization multiplier （RM）. Based on the MaxEnt model， this research simulated the changes in suitable habitats for Stellera chamaejasme L. in Xizang under current and future climatic conditions and analyzed the migration characteristics of its centroid of distribution. The model prediction results indicated that six major environmental factors dominate the distribution of Stellera chamaejasme L. in Xizang. Currently， the most suitable distribution area of Stellera chamaejasme L. in Xizang was primarily concentrated in Changdu City. Under different climate scenarios， the suitable distribution area of Stellera chamaejasme L. will undergo significant changes， with the potential for further expansion of highly suitable areas compared to the current situation. The centroid migration results suggested a trend of southwestward shift in the distribution center of Stellera chamaejasme L.. This study predicted the changes in suitable habitats for Stellera chamaejasme L. under current and future climatic conditions， elucidated the impact of climate change on its suitable distribution areas， and provided an ecological theoretical basis for the comprehensive control and dynamic monitoring of Stellera chamaejasme L. in Xizang.

Key words: Stellera chamaejasme L., MaxEnt model, ENMeval, Prediction of suitable habitats, CMIP6

摘要： 本研究以瑞香狼毒（Stellera chamaejasme L.）为研究对象，采用第六次国际气候耦合模式比较计划（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6，CMIP6）中的气候因子、地形数据和西藏地区瑞香狼毒的分布点数据，运用R语言中的ENMeval数据包对特征组合（Feature class，FC）和调控倍率（Regularization multiplier， RM ）进行优化。本研究基于MaxEnt模型模拟西藏瑞香狼毒在当前与未来气候下的适生区变化，并分析其分布质心的迁移特征。模型预测结果显示，影响瑞香狼毒在西藏分布的主导环境因子有六个；当前瑞香狼毒在西藏的最适分布区主要集中于昌都市；在不同气候情景下，瑞香狼毒的适宜分布区将呈现显著变化，其中高度适宜区的范围较现状可能进一步扩大；质心迁移结果表明瑞香狼毒分布中心有西南迁移的趋势。本研究预测了瑞香狼毒在当前及未来气候下的适生区变化，阐明了气候变化对其适生区的影响，为西藏地区综合防治瑞香狼毒与动态监测提供生态学理论依据。

关键词: 瑞香狼毒, MaxEnt模型, ENMeval, 适生区预测, CMIP6

CLC Number:

S812.6

LI Hai-ming, XIE Wen-wen, SHEN Qiu-xiao-xiao, CHEN Jin-xun, SHEN Wan-qing, DANG Ming-yu, WANG Zhong-bin. Optimizing and Predicting the Potential Suitable Habitat of Stellera chamaejasme L. in Xizang Under Climate Change Using MaxEnt Model[J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2025, 33(8): 2603-2617.

李海铭, 谢文文, 沈邱筱潇, 陈进勋, 申婉青, 党明雨, 王忠斌. MaxEnt模型优化预测气候变化下西藏瑞香狼毒潜在适生区[J]. 草地学报, 2025, 33(8): 2603-2617.

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Optimizing and Predicting the Potential Suitable Habitat of Stellera chamaejasme L. in Xizang Under Climate Change Using MaxEnt Model

MaxEnt模型优化预测气候变化下西藏瑞香狼毒潜在适生区

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