Abstract: The study used the supply and demand calculation formula to analyze the supply and demand of forage in the Shigatse region. Afterwards, using the difference calculation method, the gap yield between forage supply and demand was obtained. On basis of the above two steps, we predicted the forage gap in the next 10 years of the Shigatse region. The results of our research would put forward corresponding advice on supply and demand of regional forage industry in the Shigatse. It indicated that the supply was not adequate to the demand, even with the large gap of forage. To be specific, the largest gap was 2.2287 million tons and the smallest was 1.3288 million tons from 2000 to 2019. The gap prediction data in the next decades showed that the demand for forage grass in Shigatse region would remain the yield between 3.0 and 4.0 million tons. Despite the forage gap would be reduced, the gap value would be still large. The study analyzed the current situation and tried to give advice from three aspects, namely, natural environment, institutional policies, and economic development to solve the contradiction between forage supply and demand.

Key words: Natural grassland, Herbivorous livestock, Gap value between supply and demand, Standard daily food intake of sheep

摘要： 本研究采用供需计算公式分析日喀则地区牧草供给量和需求量，用供需差值计算法计算牧草供给缺口，同时据此预测未来10年日喀则地区的牧草需求量及缺口，以期为促进该地区牧草产业发展提出建议。结果表明：2000-2019年，日喀则地区牧草供不应求，缺口较大，最大为222.87万t，最小为132.88万t。未来10年的牧草需求和缺口预测数据表明：日喀则牧草需求量维持在300~400万t之间，缺口虽呈逐年减小的趋势，但数值依然较大。因此，本研究从自然环境、制度政策、经济发展三个方面提出建议，为解决牧草供需矛盾提供有效依据。

关键词: 天然草地, 草食家畜, 供需差值, 羊单位标准日食量