Abstract: Based on the statistical data of animal husbandry production and annual average temperature data of 33 pure animal husbandry banners and counties in Inner Mongolia from 1986 to 2021， the time-varying DID model was used to analyze the influence of grassland property right system reform and climate change on the scale of large livestock breeding in pastoral areas. The results showed that the reform of grassland property right system had a significant positive effect on the scale of large livestock breeding， of which， the household contract system of grassland had a positive effect on the scale of large livestock breeding， but the “three rights separation” reform had no significant effect on the scale of large livestock breeding. Climate change had a negative moderating effect on the relationship between property rights system and the scale of large livestock breeding. Therefore， the implementation of the reform of grassland property rights system has its positive effects， but it is necessary to further improve the policy to activate the property rights of grassland in pastoral areas and release the economic vitality of grassland animal husbandry. At the same time， strengthen long-term climate change monitoring and response， especially for the trend of annual average temperature change， and formulate corresponding animal husbandry adaptation strategies， such as the introduction of adaptable animal husbandry varieties and the improvement of breeding technology. In addition， a new pattern of coordinated development of grassland property rights system reform and climate change should be constructed to promote stable growth in the scale of large livestock farming.

Key words: The reform of grassland property right system, Climate change, Scale of large livestock breeding, Time-varying DID model, Inner Mongolia

摘要： 本研究基于1986—2021年内蒙古33个纯牧业旗县的畜牧业生产统计资料以及年平均气温数据，运用渐进性双重差分模型分析了草场产权制度改革、气候变化对牧区大牲畜养殖规模的影响。结果表明：草场产权制度改革对大牲畜养殖规模具有显著正向作用，其中，草牧场家庭承包制对大牲畜养殖规模具有正向影响，但“三权分置”改革对大牲畜养殖规模并无显著促进作用；气候变化对草场产权制度与大牲畜养殖规模之间的关系具有负向调节效应。因此，草场产权制度改革实施有其正面成效，但还需进一步完善政策以激活牧区草场产权权能，释放草牧业经济活力；同时，加强长期气候变化监测与应对，特别是针对年平均气温变化趋势，制定相应畜牧业适应策略，如引进适应性强的牲畜品种和改进养殖技术；另外，构筑草场产权制度改革与气候变化协调发展新格局，促进大牲畜养殖规模的稳定增长。

关键词: 草场产权制度改革, 气候变化, 大牲畜养殖规模, 渐进性双重差分模型, 内蒙古