Abstract: To clarify the occurrence trends of poisonous weeds in grasslands under future climate change， and to scientifically prevent their spread and reduce economic losses in the livestock industry， this study based on the distribution data of five frequently occurring grassland poisonous weeds in the Ili River Valley： Sophora alopecuroides， Aconitum leucostomum， Xanthium spinosum， Rumex thianschanicus， and Peganum harmala—and combined with 55 influencing factors， employed the Maximum Entropy model to explore the impact of climate change on the occurrence trends of these five grassland poisonous weeds. The results showed that the prediction models for the five grassland poisonous weeds all had an accuracy greater than 0.8， indicating high precision. Under four future climate scenarios， the total potential occurrence area of Aconitum leucostomum decreased， while that of the other four grassland poisonous weeds increased. Under the medium-to-high emission scenario （SSP370）， grassland poisonous weeds were more prone to expansion and posed greater risks. In terms of migration direction， in the future， Aconitum leucostomum， Rumex thianschanicus， and Peganum harmala would mainly migrate southward， Sophora alopecuroides would migrate eastward， and Xanthium spinosum would migrate toward the southeast and northeast， with an overall trend of grassland poisonous weeds migrating toward lower latitudes. Under the four future climate scenarios， the area of overlapping zones for multiple grassland poisonous weed species increased， with the largest overlapping area occurring under the high-emission scenario （SSP585）. In conclusion， continuous increases in carbon emissions will exacerbate the spread and harm of grassland poisonous weeds.

Key words: Grassland poisonous weed, MaxEnt model, Trend analysis

摘要： 为明确未来气候变化下草原毒害草发生趋势，科学预防草原毒害草、降低畜牧业经济损失，本研究基于伊犁河谷5种频发草原毒害草：苦豆子（Sophora alopecuroides）、白喉乌头（Aconitum leucostomum）、刺苍耳（Xanthium spinosum）、天山酸模（Rumex thianschanicus）和骆驼蓬（Peganum harmala）的分布数据，结合55个影响因子，运用最大熵模型（Maximum Entropy， MaxEnt）探讨气候变化对5种草原毒害草发生趋势的影响。结果表明：5种草原毒害草预测模型精度均大于0.8，准确度较高；未来4种气候情景下，白喉乌头潜在发生区总面积缩减，其余4种草原毒害草潜在发生区总面积增加；中高排放的SSP370情景下草原毒害草更易扩张危害；从迁移方向看，未来白喉乌头、天山酸模、骆驼蓬主要向南迁移，苦豆子向东迁移，刺苍耳向东南和东北方向迁移，草原毒害草整体呈向低纬度方向迁移趋势；未来4种气候情景下，草原毒害草多物种重叠区面积均增加，高排放的SSP585情景下重叠区面积最大。综上，碳排放持续增加会加剧草原毒害草危害扩散。

关键词: 草原毒害草, MaxEnt模型, 趋势分析