Analysis and Comparison of Suitable Areas of Cypripedium tibeticum and Cypripedium flavum in China under Climate Change Scenario

doi:10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2025.10.025

Acta Agrestia Sinica ›› 2025, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (10): 3372-3380.DOI: 10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2025.10.025

Analysis and Comparison of Suitable Areas of Cypripedium tibeticum and Cypripedium flavum in China under Climate Change Scenario

DAI Cai-qin, ZHANG Duo-lin, YANG Jie, ZHANG Bo, ZHANG Wen-liu

Pratacultural college, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou, Gansu Province 730070, China

Received:2024-11-07 Revised:2025-02-19 Published:2025-10-17

基于MaxEnt模型的西藏杓兰和黄花杓兰在中国的适生区预测

代彩琴, 张夺霖, 杨洁, 张勃, 张文柳

甘肃农业大学草业学院, 甘肃兰州 730070

通讯作者: 张勃,E-mail:zbsonny@163.com;张文柳,E-mail:zhangwl@gsau.edu.cn
作者简介:张勃,E-mail:zbsonny@163.com;张文柳,E-mail:zhangwl@gsau.edu.cn
基金资助:
甘肃省自然科学基金（22JR5RA865）资助

Abstract

Abstract: Exploring the impact of climate change on the potential and future distribution patterns of Cypripedium tibeticum and C. flavum is of great significance for formulating their conservation strategies. In this study， we used the MaxEnt model， along with distribution data and relevant climatic and environmental variables， to assess their potential habitat under current climatic conditions and four future climate scenarios. The results indicated that the MaxEnt model demonstrated strong predictive performance for both species， with AUC values exceeding 0.9. The distribution of C. tibeticum was primarily influenced by annual precipitation， elevation， and temperature seasonality， whereas C. flavum was mainly affected by elevation， annual precipitation， and the mean temperature of the coldest quarter. The current suitable habitat area for C. tibeticum （17.95×10⁵ km² ） was larger than that for C. flavum （13.56×10⁵ km² ）， with their highly suitable areas partially overlapping in southwestern and northwestern China. Under future climate scenarios， the suitable habitat for C. tibeticum was projected to slightly decline， whereas that of C. flavum was expected to expand. Additionally， the distribution centers of both species were predicted to shift toward higher elevations and the southwest. These findings provided valuable insights for the conservation and sustainable management of C. tibeticum and C. flavum.

Key words: Cypripedium tibeticum, Cypripedium flavum, Climate change, Maxent model, Habitat distribution pattern

摘要： 探究气候变化对西藏杓兰（Cypripedium tibeticum）和黄花杓兰（C. flavum）潜在分布及未来分布格局的影响，对制定其保护策略具有重要意义。本研究基于MaxEnt模型，结合2种杓兰的分布数据及气候环境变量，分析其在当前和未来4种气候情景下的潜在分布。结果表明：MaxEnt模型的AUC值均高于0.9，预测结果可靠。西藏杓兰的分布主要受年均降水量、海拔和温度季节性变化影响，而黄花杓兰则主要受海拔、年均降水量和最冷季度平均温度制约。当前西藏杓兰适生区面积（17.95×10⁵ km² ）大于黄花杓兰（13.56×10⁵ km² ），二者高度适宜分布区在西南和西北地区部分重叠。未来气候情景下，西藏杓兰适生区面积略有减少，而黄花杓兰则略有增加，且二者分布中心均向高海拔及西南方向迁移。该结果为西藏杓兰和黄花杓兰的资源保护与利用提供了科学依据。

关键词: 西藏杓兰, 黄花杓兰, 气候变化, MaxEnt模型, 适生区分布格局

CLC Number:

Q948

DAI Cai-qin, ZHANG Duo-lin, YANG Jie, ZHANG Bo, ZHANG Wen-liu. Analysis and Comparison of Suitable Areas of Cypripedium tibeticum and Cypripedium flavum in China under Climate Change Scenario[J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2025, 33(10): 3372-3380.

代彩琴, 张夺霖, 杨洁, 张勃, 张文柳. 基于MaxEnt模型的西藏杓兰和黄花杓兰在中国的适生区预测[J]. 草地学报, 2025, 33(10): 3372-3380.

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Analysis and Comparison of Suitable Areas of Cypripedium tibeticum and Cypripedium flavum in China under Climate Change Scenario

基于MaxEnt模型的西藏杓兰和黄花杓兰在中国的适生区预测

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