Assessment of Yield-Rainfall Matching Degree of the Alfalfa-maize Rotation System in Central and Northern Shanxi Based on the APSIM Model

doi:10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2026.06.020

Acta Agrestia Sinica ›› 2026, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (6): 2173-2183.DOI: 10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2026.06.020

Assessment of Yield-Rainfall Matching Degree of the Alfalfa-maize Rotation System in Central and Northern Shanxi Based on the APSIM Model

LIU Peng^1,2, JIA Xiao-yi^1,2, HE Shi-jia^1,2, XU Hong-yu^1,2, YANG Xuan^1,2

1. College of Grassland Science, Shanxi Agricultural University, Jinzhong, Shanxi Province 030801, China;
2. Shanxi Key Laboratory of Grassland Ecological Protection and Native Grass Germplasm Innovation, Jinzhong, Shanxi Province 030801

Received:2025-08-11 Revised:2025-12-21 Published:2026-06-02

基于APSIM模型评估山西中北部“苜蓿-玉米”轮作模式产量与降水的匹配度

刘鹏^1,2, 贾晓怡^1,2, 何世佳^1,2, 徐洪雨^1,2, 杨轩^1,2

1. 山西农业大学草业学院, 山西晋中 030801;
2. 草地生态保护与乡土草种质创新山西省重点实验室, 山西晋中 030801

通讯作者: 杨轩,E-mail:yangxuan2019@sxau.edu.cn
作者简介:刘鹏(2000-),男,汉族,河南驻马店人,硕士研究生,主要从事田间粮草耦合与模型应用研究,E-mail:18137573069@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目（32001404）；山西农业大学科技创新基金项目（2020BQ26）资助

Abstract

Abstract: This study aimed to assess the sustainability of alfalfa-grain maize rotations in central-northern Shanxi Province， China， and to screeen the optimal management strategies. The Agricultural Production System Simulator （APSIM） model was calibrated using multi-site experimental data and employed to simulate long-term historical （1985—2014） and future climate scenarios （2021—2050； 2051—2080）. Three rotation systems were compared： 6A （6-year continuous alfalfa）， 5A1C （5-year alfalfa+1-year grain maize）， and 4A2C （4-year alfalfa+2-year grain maize）. The results indicated that the model performed well in simulating yield and biomass （Normalized Root Mean Squared Error， NRMSE<20%）. Under future climate scenarios， the equivalent yield of 6A was significantly higher than that of 5A1C and 4A2C （P<0.05）， which were increased by 9.45% and 23.02% compared to 5A1C in the 2020s and 2050s， respectively and increased by 23.02% and 28.49% compared to 4A2C. Furthermore， 6A achieved the highest single-cycle equivalent yield （59.98 t/hm²） under the historical scenarios. Regarding precipitation matching， values exceeded 0.6 for maize and were >0.8 for alfalfa during May–August. However， the matching degree was lower in April， September， and October， indicating substantial irrigation requirements. The precipitation matching were significantly improved by future scenarios （P<0.05）， though the values of 6A remained lower than 4A2C during April and May. In conclusion， 6A maximized land productivity under future climates with enhanced irrigation in spring conversely. 4A2C offers a more balanced combination of productivity and water use efficiency. Our results could support the strategies of optimized forage and adaptive rotation strategy in Shanxi.

Key words: Alfalfa, Maize, Crop rotation, Climate change, APSIM

摘要： 本研究拟评估山西中至北部紫花苜蓿-籽实玉米轮作的可持续性，并筛选最优模式。为此，本研究基于多点试验数据校准APSIM（Agricultural Production System Simulator）模型，开展历史情景（1985—2014）与未来情景（2021—2050，2051—2080）长期模拟，比较6A（6年苜蓿）、5A1C（5年苜蓿1年籽实玉米）、4A2C（4年苜蓿2年籽实玉米）。结果表明：模型对产量与生物量拟合良好（归一化均方根误差<20%）。未来情景下，6A当量产量显著高于5A1C与4A2C（P<0.05），较5A1C在2020s与2050s分别增9.45%与12.12%，较4A2C增23.02%与28.49%；历史情景下6A的单循环当量产量也最高（59.98 t·hm^-2）。降水匹配度：玉米>0.6；苜蓿5—8月>0.8，4、9、10月偏低，灌溉需求高；未来情景匹配度显著提升（P<0.05），但4—5月6A低于4A2C。综上，未来采用6A可获最高土地生产力，但春季需强化灌溉；4A2C在产出与用水上更稳健，为优化山西饲草种植与适应性选择提供依据。

关键词: 紫花苜蓿, 玉米, 轮作, 气候变化, APSIM

CLC Number:

S344.14

LIU Peng, JIA Xiao-yi, HE Shi-jia, XU Hong-yu, YANG Xuan. Assessment of Yield-Rainfall Matching Degree of the Alfalfa-maize Rotation System in Central and Northern Shanxi Based on the APSIM Model[J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2026, 34(6): 2173-2183.

刘鹏, 贾晓怡, 何世佳, 徐洪雨, 杨轩. 基于APSIM模型评估山西中北部“苜蓿-玉米”轮作模式产量与降水的匹配度[J]. 草地学报, 2026, 34(6): 2173-2183.

References

[1] GAO R，NIU Y N，HE R Y，et al. Content and factors influencing glomalin-related soil protein of alfalfa fields at different growing ages[J]. Pratacultural Science，2024，41（3）：700-708 高瑞，牛伊宁，何仁元，等. 不同种植年限苜蓿地球囊霉素相关土壤蛋白含量及其影响因素[J]. 草业科学，2024，41（3）：700-708
[2] ZHENG M N，KANG J H，GONG R J，et al. Effects of various alfalfa-crop （forage） rotation patterns on bacterial community composition and ecological function prediction[J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica，2025，33（5）：1387-1397 郑敏娜，康佳惠，龚瑞杰，等. 不同苜蓿-粮食作物（饲草）轮作模式对土壤细菌群落组成及其生态功能影响[J]. 草地学报，2025，33（5）：1387-1397
[3] LEE J， KIM H J， PARK S. The effects of legume rotation on water use efficiency in maize production[J]. Agricultural Water Management，2018，202：104-113
[4] PENG Y X，ZHANG F X，ZHANG S，et al. Using APSIM to optimize corn nitrogen fertilizer application levels in alfalfa-corn rotation system in Northeast China[J]. Field Crops Research，2024，318：109596
[5] IPCC. Climate Change 2022： Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M]. Cambridge： Cambridge University Press，2022：157-159
[6] ELLIOTT J， DERYNG D， MÜLLER C， et al. Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences， 2014， 111： 3239-3244
[7] ARIAS P， BELLOUIN N， COPPOLA E， et al. Climate Change 2021： the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change； technical summary[R]. 2021
[8] DARYANTO S， WANG L， JACINTHE P A. Global synthesis of the effects of mulching on crop yield[J]. Agriculture， Ecosystems & Environment，2016，232：25-35
[9] TITTONELL P，GILLER K E. When yield gaps are poverty traps： the paradigm of ecological intensification in African smallholder agriculture[J]. Field Crops Research，2013，143：76-90
[10] WANG B， WANG G Y， VAN DAM J， et al. Diversified crop rotations improve crop water use and subsequent cereal crop yield through soil moisture compensation[J]. Agricultural Water Management， 2024， 294： 108721
[11] MENG J H，WANG Y N，LIN Z X，et al. Progress and perspective of crop growth models[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery，2024，55（2）：1-15，27 蒙继华，王亚楠，林圳鑫，等. 作物生长模型研究现状与展望[J]. 农业机械学报，2024，55（2）：1-15，27
[12] ZHENG J H，ZHANG S. Decomposing the total uncertainty in wheat modeling： an analysis of model structure，parameters，weather data inputs，and squared bias contributions[J]. Agricultural Systems，2025，224：104215
[13] LI Z，MENEFEE D，YANG X，et al. Simulating productivity of dryland cotton using APSIM，climate scenario analysis，and remote sensing[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology，2022，325：109148
[14] WU L，CHENG C，YANG F Y，et al. Optimization of water and nitrogen management mode for spring wheat under different precipitation year types based on APSIM model[J]. Journal of Triticeae Crops，2025，45（1）：103-111 伍露，程陈，杨霏云，等. 基于APSIM模型的不同降水年型下春小麦水氮管理模式优化研究[J]. 麦类作物学报，2025，45（1）：103-111
[15] PU J L，WANG J，WANG K F，et al. Response of winter wheat yield under straw mulching in dryland to precipitation and temperature using APSIM model[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering，2024，40（21）：101-109 蒲锦琳，王俊，王科锋，等. 基于APSIM模型的降水和温度变化对秸秆覆盖冬小麦产量的影响[J]. 农业工程学报，2024，40（21）：101-109
[16] ZHU M，NIU S S，HOU Q Q，et al. The response of alfalfa production in Jinzhong Basin，Shanxi Province to water and air temperature[J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica，2024，32（1）：207-218 朱敏，牛帅帅，侯青青，等. 山西晋中盆地紫花苜蓿生产对水分和气温的响应[J]. 草地学报，2024，32（1）：207-218
[17] YANG X，JIA P F，HOU Q Q，et al. Quantitative sensitivity of crop productivity and water productivity to precipitation during growth periods in the Agro-Pastoral Ecotone of Shanxi Province，China，based on APSIM[J]. Agricultural Water Management，2023，283：108309
[18] TONG C L，ZHANG W J，TANG Y，et al. Estimation of daily solar radiation in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology，2005，26（3）：165-169 童成立，张文菊，汤阳，等. 逐日太阳辐射的模拟计算[J]. 中国农业气象，2005，26（3）：165-169
[19] ZHANG L M，LI R X，ZHANG M Y，et al. Effects of cutting period on yield and quality of grain-forage dual-purpose wheat[J]. Shaanxi Journal of Agricultural Sciences，2025，71（8）：20-28 张莉敏，栗如祥，张梦月，等. 刈割时期对粮饲兼用小麦产量及品质的影响[J]. 陕西农业科学，2025，71（8）：20-28
[20] LOU S N，HOU F J，REN J Z. Evaluation of grassland agricultural productivity by food equivalent unit[J]. Acta Prataculturae Sinica，2019，28（12）：1-16 娄珊宁，侯扶江，任继周. 用食物当量评价草地农业的生产力[J]. 草业学报，2019，28（12）：1-16
[21] KIVI M S，BLAKELY B，MASTERS M，et al. Development of a data-assimilation system to forecast agricultural systems： A case study of constraining soil water and soil nitrogen dynamics in the APSIM model[J]. Science of the Total Environment，2022，820：153192
[22] DING Y M，WANG W G，ZHUANG Q L，et al. Adaptation of paddy rice in China to climate change： the effects of shifting sowing date on yield and irrigation water requirement[J]. Agricultural Water Management，2020，228：105890
[23] FAN C C. Drought risk assessment and prediction of summer maize in the Huang-Huai-Hai region[D]. Nanjing：Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology，2018：43-47 番聪聪. 黄淮海地区夏玉米干旱灾害风险评估及预估[D]. 南京：南京信息工程大学，2018：43-47
[24] PAPALEXIOU S M，RAJULAPATI C R，CLARK M P， et al. Robustness of CMIP6 historical global mean temperature simulations： trends，long-term persistence，autocorrelation，and distributional shape[J]. Earth’s Future，2020，8（10）：e2020EF001667
[25] SONG Y L，ZHOU G S，GUO J P， et al. Influence of different sowing dates on yield and quality of corn Xianyu 335[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science，2024，35（5）：619-628 宋艳玲，周广胜，郭建平，等. 不同播期对玉米先玉335产量和品质的影响[J]. 应用气象学报，2024，35（5）：619-628
[26] YANG F X，ZHANG Y J，ZHANG X Q，et al. Impact of drip irrigation gradient on photosynthetic characteristics and dry matter accumulation of maize at tasseling-silking stage in northern agro-pastoral ecotone[J]. Journal of Shanxi Agricultural Sciences，2025，53（1）：55-63 杨芳欣，张雅静，张向前，等. 北方农牧交错区滴灌梯度对玉米吐丝期光合特征及干物质积累的影响[J]. 山西农业科学，2025，53（1）：55-63
[27] HE Y L， YANG Z Z， YANG X X， et al. Comprehensive evaluation of production performance and nutritional quality of 12 alfalfa varieties in Jiuquan Irrigation District， Gansu[J/OL]. https：//link.cnki.net/urlid/62.1069.S.20250313.1029.002， 2025-03-13/2026-05-22 何玉龙，杨增增，杨晓霞，等.甘肃酒泉灌区12个紫花苜蓿品种的生产性能和营养品质综合评价[J/OL].https：//link.cnki.net/urlid/62.1069.S.20250313.1029.002，2025-03-13/2026-05-22
[28] ZHAO W W，FANG X N，DARYANTO S，et al. Factors influencing soil moisture in the Loess Plateau，China： a review[J]. Earth and Environmental Science Transactions of the Royal Society of Edinburgh，2018，109（3/4）：501-509
[29] ZHANG J Y，HAN H B，YIN Q，et al. Advanced in continuous cropping obstacles of alfalfa[J]. Chinese Journal of Grassland，2024，46（6）：135-143 张静怡，韩海斌，尹强，等. 紫花苜蓿连作障碍研究进展[J]. 中国草地学报，2024，46（6）：135-143
[30] FU Y， SHEN X， LI W， et al. Spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of meteorological drought in the northwest of Yellow River basin and its response to large-scale climatic factors[J]. Journal of Water and Climate Change， 2022，13（12）：4283-4301
[31] REN H J，LU K C，CAI J B，et al. Yield responses and predictions of future change for winter wheat-summer maize based on water-heat coupling[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery，2025，56（2）：429-443，484 任贺靖，路凯超，蔡甲冰，等. 基于水热耦合的冬小麦-夏玉米产量响应与变化预测[J]. 农业机械学报，2025，56（2）：429-443，484
[32] GAO S，DING Y M，ZHU L，et al. Research on the matching degree of maize water demand and precipitation based on AquaCrop model[J]. Water Saving Irrigation，2023（6）：51-59 高爽，丁一民，朱磊，等. 基于AquaCrop模型的玉米需水和降水匹配度变化特征研究[J]. 节水灌溉，2023（6）：51-59
[33] LI M W，LUAN Q，ZHANG N，et al. Analysis of spatiotemporal dynamics and influencing factors of vegetation NDVI in Lüliang city from 2000 to 2019[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation，2022，29（4）：248-254 李孟蔚，栾青，张宁，等. 2000—2019年吕梁市植被NDVI时空动态及其影响因素分析[J]. 水土保持研究，2022，29（4）：248-254
[34] SONG L P. The characteristics of evapotranspiration and soil water recharging in lucerne-crop rotation on the Loess Plateau[D]. Lanzhou：Gansu Agricultural University，2016：32-36 宋丽萍. 黄土高原草田轮作系统田间水分蒸散特性及土壤水分恢复效应研究[D]. 兰州：甘肃农业大学，2016：32-36
[35] LUO Z Z，LI L L，NIU Y N，et al. Soil dryness characteristics of alfalfa cropland and optimal growth years of alfalfa on the Loess Plateau of central Gansu，China[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology，2015，26（10）：3059-3065 罗珠珠，李玲玲，牛伊宁，等. 陇中黄土高原半干旱区苜蓿地土壤干燥化特征及适宜种植年限[J]. 应用生态学报，2015，26（10）：3059-3065
[36] ZHANG H Y，AN J，WU Y Z，et al. Seasonal variation of water and carbon distribution in soil profile of typical vegetation conditions on the Loess Plateau[J]. Soil and Water Conservation in China，2024（3）：39-45 张恒宇，安娟，吴元芝，等. 黄土高原典型植被条件下土壤剖面水、碳分布季节变化研究[J]. 中国水土保持，2024（3）：39-45

Assessment of Yield-Rainfall Matching Degree of the Alfalfa-maize Rotation System in Central and Northern Shanxi Based on the APSIM Model

基于APSIM模型评估山西中北部“苜蓿-玉米”轮作模式产量与降水的匹配度

PDF

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 15

Recommended Articles

Metrics

Comments

[1]	ZHANG Yong-zhi, CHEN Zhe, CHEN Ji-gui, MA Ai-hui, CHEN Yu, TANG Zun-yan, WANG Shi-xiong, GUAN Jin-hong, WANG Wen-ying, ZHOU Hua-kun, XIE Hui-chun, GUO Zhi-ying, JIN Yan-xia, YUN Shi-ming. Alternating Freeze-Thaw Accelerates the Gaseous Loss of Nitrogen in the Pad-like Vegetation Ecosystem of the Periglacial Zone [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2026, 34(6): 1976-1989.
[2]	HOU Yu-zhuo, ZHOU Qin-ying, GAO Ya-nan, XU Ming-zhi, LIU Yan-rong, LIU Ya-ling, ZHANG Wan-jun. Rapid Creation of Salt-alkali Tolerant Alfalfa Germplasm by Combining Seedling Stage Screening and Indoor Generation Addition [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2026, 34(6): 2128-2137.
[3]	SUN Qing-ying, YAO Xing-jie, Lü Yan-zhen, ZHANG Zhao, YAN Hui-fang. Comprehensive Evaluation of Cadmium Tolerance of Alfalfa during Seed Germination [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2026, 34(6): 2138-2146.
[4]	LI Ruo-hong, ZHAO Shi-qiang, PENG Meng-zhu, MAO Pei-sheng. Antioxidant Physiological Responses during Imbibition and Germination of Alfalfa Seeds Stored for Different Years [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2026, 34(5): 1557-1567.
[5]	YANG Jin-hui, WANG Xiao-tong, MA Yong-long, YU Dong-wen, TONG Yu-hua, MA Meng-fan, LI Shu-xia. Evaluation of Salt Tolerance of Different Alfalfa Germplasm Materials During the Germination Period [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2026, 34(5): 1654-1663.
[6]	LI Xiao-e. The Effects of Pb Stress on the Germination Physiology of Alfalfa Seeds， Antioxidant System of Seedlings， and Pb Enrichment Effect [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2026, 34(5): 1691-1700.
[7]	WEI Shan-shan, LI Cheng, CAI Xiong-wei, ZHAO Han, LIU Fang-cai, WANG Ping, ZHANG Xiao-juan, JIANG Hua, ZHOU Kai. Screening and Comprehensive Evaluation of Silage Maize Varieties in Low—Latitude Plateau Monsoon Regions： A Case Study of Dali， Yunnan [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2026, 34(5): 1776-1786.
[8]	REN Meng-yu, NAN Li-li, SHA Feng-qin, GUO Jia-yu, DU Liang-liang, YUN Hai-chi. Effects of Mixing Ratio and Storage Time on the Quality of Mixed Silage of Alfalfa and Rapeseed Straw [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2026, 34(5): 1953-1962.
[9]	XU Yi, WANG Ting, GUO Yu-peng, MIAO Xing-fen, ZHENG Xia, SHI Peng-jun. Evaluation and Screening of Reference Genes in Alfalfa （Medicago sativa L. ‘Gongnong No.1’） Different Tissues under Waterlogging Stress [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2026, 34(4): 1146-1157.
[10]	CAIRANG Zha-xi, LIU Yu-ping, SU Xu, QU Rong-ju, WEI Kai-yue, FENG Xu, SUN Cheng-lin, ZHANG Kai-qi. Prediction of the Potential Suitable Habitat of Orinus （Poaceae）， an Endemic Genus to the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under the Background of Climate Change [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2026, 34(4): 1430-1442.
[11]	MA Xiang-xiang, NAN Li-li, YANG Li-li, WANG Li-qun, TIAN Ge, GUO Jia-yu. Effects of Brassinolide on Growth and Physiological Characteristics of Alfalfa under Low Temperature Stress [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2026, 34(4): 1492-1501.
[12]	YU Li-hong, YU Yi-ze, DAO Ji-cao, LONG Si, RAN Shu-qi, LI Han-yu, XU Yue-fei. Effects of Biochar Combined with Manure on Growth and Quality of Silage Maize [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2026, 34(4): 1502-1509.
[13]	GE Meng-ting, QIAO Dan-dan, WANG Xin-yue, ZHANG Ruo-lin, BI Mingyue, HE Xue-qing. Effects of Cerium Oxide Nanoparticle Priming on Seed Germination and Physiological Characteristics of Alfalfa under Drought Stress [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2026, 34(4): 1534-1545.
[14]	LI Xiao-kun, ZHANG Li-ping, SHAN Xin-he, YANG Jun-wei, REN Wei, YANG Chao-wei, WANG Xian-guo. Effects of Different Mixed Sowing Methods of Silage Maize and Lablab Bean on Forage Yield and Quality [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2026, 34(3): 1053-1059.
[15]	YANG He-yu, HAO Jun-feng, WANG Zhi-jun, JIA Yu-shan, FAN Mei-chao, GE Gen-tu. Effects of Surface Water and Groundwater Irrigation on Water Use Efficiency and Production Characteristics of Alfalfa [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2026, 34(3): 1128-1136.