Prediction of the Potential Suitable Habitat of Orinus （Poaceae）， an Endemic Genus to the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under the Background of Climate Change

doi:10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2026.04.025

Acta Agrestia Sinica ›› 2026, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (4): 1430-1442.DOI: 10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2026.04.025

Prediction of the Potential Suitable Habitat of Orinus （Poaceae）， an Endemic Genus to the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under the Background of Climate Change

CAIRANG Zha-xi^1,2, LIU Yu-ping^1,2,3, SU Xu^1,2,3, QU Rong-ju^1,2, WEI Kai-yue^1,2, FENG Xu^1,2, SUN Cheng-lin^1,2, ZHANG Kai-qi¹

1. School of Life Sciences, Qinghai Normal University, Xining, Qinghai Province 810008, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Biodiversity Formation Mechanism and Comprehensive Utilization of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in Qinghai Province, Qinghai Normal University, Xining, Qinghai Province 810008, China;
3. Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, Qinghai Normal University, Xining, Qinghai Province 810016, China

Received:2025-05-21 Revised:2025-10-20 Published:2026-04-15

气候变化背景下青藏高原特有属固沙草属物种潜在适生区预测

才让扎西^1,2, 刘玉萍^1,2,3, 苏旭^1,2,3, 曲荣举^1,2, 韦凯悦^1,2, 冯旭^1,2, 孙成林^1,2, 张凯棋¹

1. 青海师范大学生命科学学院, 青海西宁 810008;
2. 青海师范大学青海省青藏高原生物多样性形成机制与综合利用重点实验室, 青海西宁 810008;
3. 青海师范大学高原科学与可持续发展研究院, 青海西宁 810016

通讯作者: 苏旭，E-mail：xusu8527972@126.com
作者简介:才让扎西（2001-），男，藏族，青海化隆人，硕士研究生，主要从事高山植物系统与进化研究，E-mail：cairangzhaxi161915@163.com；
基金资助:
青海省重点研发与转化计划-国际合作专项（2022-HZ-802）；国家自然科学基金项目（32360305）资助

Abstract

Abstract: This study aimed to clarify the potential suitable habitats of three Orinus species， including O. thoroldii， O. kokonoricus and O. intermedius， under the background of climate change. Based on the data of species distribution records and climate variables， MaxEnt model and ArcGIS were applied to conduct spatial simulation and prediction of three Orinus species. The results showed that the predictive accuracy was high （AUC>0.95）. The key environmental factor influencing habitat suitability was altitude for O. thoroldii， the mean temperature of the wettest quarter was the main factor for O. kokonoricus， while the mean diurnal temperature range was the key one for O. intermedius. From the Last Interglacial to the Mid-Holocene， the suitable area for O. thoroldii and O. kokonoricus decreased， while that for O. intermedius increased. Under the future climate scenarios， the suitable area of O. thoroldii and O. kokonoricus showed an initial increase followed by a decrease， whereas the opposite trend was observed for O. intermedius. Currently， the high suitable area of O. thoroldii was mainly located in the southwest of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau， that of O. kokonoricus was in the east of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau， while that of O. intermedius was in the central part and northeast of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. We thought that the high suitable habitat of Orinus species was in the southwest， east， northeast and central parts of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. It is suggested to strengthen in situ protection to cope with the pressure brought by future climate change.

Key words: Orinus, Climate change, Potential suitable habitat, MaxEnt model

摘要： 本研究旨在明确气候变化背景下固沙草（Orinus thoroldii）、青海固沙草（O.kokonoricus）和居间固沙草（O.intermedius）的潜在适生区。基于物种分布记录与气候因子数据，运用MaxEnt模型与ArcGIS软件进行空间模拟与预测。结果表明，模型预测精度较高（AUC>0.95）；影响固沙草适生区分布的关键环境因子为海拔，青海固沙草为最湿季度平均温度，居间固沙草为平均气温日较差。历史时期分析显示，末次间冰期至全新世中期固沙草与青海固沙草的适生区面积减少，居间固沙草增加；未来气候情景下，固沙草与青海固沙草的适生区呈“先增后减”趋势，居间固沙草呈“先减后增”趋势；当前适生区格局表现为固沙草集中于青藏高原西南部，青海固沙草分布于东部，居间固沙草分布于中部与东北部。青藏高原西南、东部、东北及中部为固沙草属高适生区，建议加强就地保护以应对未来气候变化带来的生态压力。

关键词: 固沙草属, 气候变化, 潜在适生区, MaxEnt模型

CLC Number:

Q948

CAIRANG Zha-xi, LIU Yu-ping, SU Xu, QU Rong-ju, WEI Kai-yue, FENG Xu, SUN Cheng-lin, ZHANG Kai-qi. Prediction of the Potential Suitable Habitat of Orinus （Poaceae）， an Endemic Genus to the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under the Background of Climate Change[J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2026, 34(4): 1430-1442.

才让扎西, 刘玉萍, 苏旭, 曲荣举, 韦凯悦, 冯旭, 孙成林, 张凯棋. 气候变化背景下青藏高原特有属固沙草属物种潜在适生区预测[J]. 草地学报, 2026, 34(4): 1430-1442.

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Prediction of the Potential Suitable Habitat of Orinus （Poaceae）， an Endemic Genus to the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under the Background of Climate Change

气候变化背景下青藏高原特有属固沙草属物种潜在适生区预测

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