草地学报

›› 2012, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (1): 183-188.DOI: 10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2012.01.029

• 技术创新 • 上一篇    下一篇

南方草食动物生产预测模型——以湖南道县为例

文石林1,2,3, 刘强1, 荣湘民1, 董春华1,2,3, 高菊生2,3, 周升明4   

  1. 1. 湖南农业大学资源环境学院, 湖南长沙410128;
    2. 中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所祁阳农田生态系统国家野外试验站, 湖南祁阳426182;
    3. 中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所农业部作物营养与施肥重点开放实验室, 北京100081;
    4. 长沙市土壤肥料工作站, 湖南长沙410013
  • 收稿日期:2011-09-19 修回日期:2011-11-11 出版日期:2012-02-15 发布日期:2012-07-06
  • 作者简介:文石林(1964- ),男,湖南宁乡人,研究员,博士,长期从事土壤改良与植物营养研究,E-mail:shilin.wen@tom.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家科技支撑计划重点项目(2009BADC6B05)(2006BAD05B09)(2006BAD25B08)资助

Prediction Model of Herbivores Production in Southern China——Dao County As a Typical Feeding Area

WEN Shi-lin1,2,3, LIU Qiang1, RONG Xiang-min1, DONG Chun-hua1,2,3, GAO Ju-sheng2,3, ZHOU Sheng-ming4   

  1. 1. College of Resource and Environment, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha, Hunan Province 410128, China;
    2. Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning CAAS, Qiyang Agro-ecosystem of National Field Experimental Station, Qiyang, Hunan Province 426182, China;
    3. Institute of Agricultural Resources and Gegional Planning CAAS, Ministry of Agriculture Key Laboratory of Crop Nutrition and Fertilization, Beijing 100081, China;
    4. Changsha Workstation of Soil and Fertilizer, Changsha, Hunan Provicne 410013, China
  • Received:2011-09-19 Revised:2011-11-11 Online:2012-02-15 Published:2012-07-06

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摘要： 为促使中国南方拥有合理的载畜量和保证其生态系统的良性循环,以湖南道县为南方养殖典型区示例,系统分析南方饲草资源的种类,及其总量计算的方法,探讨南方草食动物发展的潜力,并在此基础上建立草畜平衡的预测模型,并以道县为例对模型进行了验证,同时介绍了该模型的组成和使用情况及其不足。养殖户只需输入一些基本信息,该模型就会以图示方式直观地指导用户进行畜牧生产活动。同时,通过该模型的预测,可以了解南方畜牧业的发展潜力,使畜牧区拥有合理的载畜量,从而使草畜之间达到相对动态平衡。该预测模型的建立对南方畜牧业的发展有着重要的指导意义。

关键词: 中国南方, 饲草资源, 草食动物, 动态平衡, 预测模型

Abstract: In order to determine a reasonable number of livestock for ensuring necessary ecosystems in southern China(Dao County as a typical feeding area),several forage resources and calculation methods were systematically analyzed.Using the potential development of herbivores,a forecast model for balance between forage resources and herbivores was established.This model was verified effectively by Dao County and its composition,application and insufficiency were introduced.The model can predict and advise users how to arrange livestock production efficiently after applying local data.The potential development of herbivores in south China can be forecasted and a reasonable number of livestock can be ascertained for feeding areas through the forecast model to determine relative dynamic equilibrium between forage resource and herbivore amount.This forecast model has practical value for guiding animal husbandry development in south China.

Key words: South China, Forage resources, Herbivores, Dynamic equilibrium, Forecast model

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