草地学报

草地学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (1): 213-221.DOI: 10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2025.01.024

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    

气候变化下黄花刺茄在内蒙古的潜在适生区预测

孟达1, 董金阳1, 姜海燕1, 赵胜国2, 吴云菊3, 党海龙4, 房钰欣1   

  1. 1. 内蒙古农业大学林学院, 内蒙古 呼和浩特 010018;
    2. 内蒙古自治区林业和草原有害生物防治检疫总站, 内蒙古 呼和浩特 010010;
    3. 呼和浩特市林业和草原局玉泉分局, 内蒙古 呼和浩特 010010;
    4. 呼和浩特市林业和草原局赛罕分局, 内蒙古 呼和浩特 010010
  • 收稿日期:2024-03-19 修回日期:2024-05-10 发布日期:2025-01-22
  • 通讯作者: 姜海燕，E-mail：jhydlm@126.com
  • 作者简介:孟达（1999-）,男,汉族,吉林通化人,硕士研究生,主要从事森林保护研究,E-mail：954119568@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    满洲里市草原有害生物及林业湿地外来有害生物普查采购项目（MZL-QY-22015）；呼和浩特市草原有害生物及森林、草原、湿地外来入侵物种普查技术服务项目（FHYXFW2023-03001）；内蒙古大学生创新创业项目（202210129029）；内蒙古自治区2022年科学技术协会科普作品资助项目资助

Prediction of the Potential Distribution Area of Solanum rostratum Dunal in Inner Mongolia under Climate Change

MENG Da1, DONG Jin-yang1, JIANG Hai-yan1, ZHAO Sheng-guo2, WU Yun-ju3, DANG Hai-long4, FANG Yu-xin1   

  1. 1. School of Forestry, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia 010018, China;
    2. Inner Mongolia Forestry and Grassland Pest Control and Quarantine Station, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia 010010, China;
    3. Hohhot Forestry and Grassland Bureau Yuquan Branch, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia 010010, China;
    4. Saihan Branch of Hohhot Forestry and Grassland Bureau, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia 010010, China
  • Received:2024-03-19 Revised:2024-05-10 Published:2025-01-22

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摘要： 黄花刺茄（Solanum rostratum Dunal）是一种繁殖能力较强的外来入侵物种,对其进行监测和预报对于保护生态安全、为防治工作提供科学数据具有重要意义。为探究黄花刺茄在内蒙古的未来适生区变化,本研究通过对2种气候情景下（SSP126可持续发展路径、SSP585化石燃料常规发展路径）用MaxEnt模型对现在2020s及未来2050s和2070s的黄花刺茄在内蒙古的适生区进行了预测。结果显示：MaxEnt的训练集AUC（Area under curve）值为0.927,其中最暖季度平均降水量和最冷季度平均温度为影响黄花刺茄分布的主要气候变量；当代2020s的黄花刺茄主要集中在内蒙古的东部地区,未来2050s和2070s会向西部地区迁移；在SSP126气候情景下,黄花刺茄2050s适生面积为4.0371×105 km2,2070s为5.5407×105 km2；在SSP585气候情景下,黄花刺茄2050s适生面积达到 5.8343×105 km2,2070s为8.2609×105 km2；SSP126下的黄花刺茄适生区扩增更慢。根据可持续发展的国家政策,SSP126气候情景更符合未来的适生区预测。

关键词: 黄花刺茄, MaxEnt, 潜在适生区, 外来入侵

Abstract: Solanum rostratum Dunal is a quarantine weed with an extremely high reproductive capacity. Monitoring and predicting its spread is crucial for protecting ecological security and providing scientific data for effective prevention and control measures. This study aims to explore future changes in the suitable growth areas of S. rostratum Dunal in Inner Mongolia. The MaxEnt model was used to predict the suitable growth areas for this species in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2070s under two climate scenarios： SSP126 （a sustainable development pathway） and SSP585 （a conventional fossil fuel development pathway）. The results show that the Area Under the Curve （AUC） value of the MaxEnt model’s training set is 0.927, indicating high predictive accuracy. The main climatic factors affecting the distribution of S. rostratum are the average precipitation in the warmest quarter and the average temperature in the coldest quarter. In the 2020s, the plant is primarily concentrated in the eastern region of Inner Mongolia. However, by the 2050s and 2070s, it is expected to migrate to the western region. Under the SSP126 scenario, the suitable area for S. rostratum is predicted to be 403 710 km2 by the 2050s and 554 070 km2 by the 2070s. In contrast, under the SSP585 scenario, the suitable area expands to 583 430 km2 by the 2050s and 826 090 km2 by the 2070s. This suggests a slower expansion under SSP126, which aligns with national policies focused on sustainable development.

Key words: Solanum rostratum Dunal, MaxEnt, Potential distribution area, Alien invasive species

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