CENTURY模型在新疆天山山区的适用性分析

doi:10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2020.01.030

草地学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (1): 252-258.DOI: 10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2020.01.030

CENTURY模型在新疆天山山区的适用性分析

郭燕云¹, 刘艳², 李秋月³, 陈辰⁴, 王森¹

1. 新疆农业气象台, 新疆乌鲁木齐 830002;
2. 中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所, 新疆乌鲁木齐 830002;
3. 北京市气候中心, 北京 100089;
4. 山东省气候中心, 山东济南 250031

收稿日期:2019-09-24 修回日期:2019-10-29 出版日期:2020-02-15 发布日期:2020-01-18
通讯作者: 刘艳
作者简介:郭燕云(1985-),女,汉族,工程师,硕士研究生,主要从事农牧业气象业务与科研工作,E-mail:yanyunguo201049@sina.cn
基金资助:
中央级科研院所基本科研业务费（IDM2016004）资助

Validation and Adaptability Evaluation of Grassland Ecosystem Model CENTURY in the Tianshan Mountain Area

GUO Yan-yun¹, LIU Yan², LI Qiu-yue³, CHEN Chen⁴, WANG Sen¹

1. Xinjiang Agricultural Meteorological Station, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830002, China;
2. Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830002, China;
3. Beijing Regional Climate Centre, Beijing 100089;
4. Shandong Climate Center, Jinan, Shandong 250031, China

Received:2019-09-24 Revised:2019-10-29 Online:2020-02-15 Published:2020-01-18

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用模型评价气候变化对草地生产力的影响，对草地的可持续利用及防灾减灾具有重要意义。本文选取新疆天山山区乌鲁木齐市牧业气象试验站、昭苏、巴里坤为代表站点，基于各站多年围封草地观测资料，对草地生态系统模型（CENTURY模型）进行适用性分析。结果表明：CENTURY模型模拟的乌鲁木齐市牧业气象试验站、昭苏和巴里坤地上生物量模拟值与实测值呈显著相关（P<0.05），决定系数（R²）分别为0.39，0.51，0.38，均方根误差（RMSE）分别为34.09，37.15，14.29 g C·m^-2，CENTURY模型可以用于气候变化对新疆天山山区草地生产力的影响研究。基于验证后的模型对1961-2016年地上生物量模拟显示：巴里坤呈显著减少趋势、昭苏呈极显著增加趋势、乌鲁木齐市牧业气象试验站呈波动减少趋势，但差异不显著。

关键词: CENTURY模型, 地上部生物量, 适用性, 验证

Abstract: Using models to analyze and evaluate the impact of climate change on grassland productivity is an emerging and reliable technical means,which is of great significance for the protection and sustainable use of grassland ecology. In this paper,Urumqi,Zhaosu and Balikun were selected as representative sites in the Tianshan Mountain Area. The long-term observation data of grassland biomass from the livestock meteorogical experiment stations were used to calibrate and validate the grassland ecosystem model (CENTURY). The results showed that there was a close consistency between the simulated and measured aboveground biomass (P<0.05). The determination coefficients were 0.39,0.51 and 0.38,respectively. Relative Mean Square Roots (RMSE) were 34.09,37.15 and 14.29g C·m^-2,respectively. The CENTURY model could be used to study the impact of climate change on grass productivity in the Tianshan Mountain Area. The simulation result showed that the grassland aboveground biomass from 1961 to 2016 increased significantly at Zhaosu (P<0.01),decreased significantly at Balikun (P<0.05),decreased at Urumqi (but there was no significant difference at 95% level).

Key words: CENTURY model, Aboveground biomass, Suitability, Validation

中图分类号:

S812

郭燕云, 刘艳, 李秋月, 陈辰, 王森. CENTURY模型在新疆天山山区的适用性分析[J]. 草地学报, 2020, 28(1): 252-258.

GUO Yan-yun, LIU Yan, LI Qiu-yue, CHEN Chen, WANG Sen. Validation and Adaptability Evaluation of Grassland Ecosystem Model CENTURY in the Tianshan Mountain Area[J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2020, 28(1): 252-258.

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CENTURY模型在新疆天山山区的适用性分析

Validation and Adaptability Evaluation of Grassland Ecosystem Model CENTURY in the Tianshan Mountain Area

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