CENTURY模型在川西北高原草原的适用性研究

doi:10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2019.03.025

草地学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (3): 711-718.DOI: 10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2019.03.025

CENTURY模型在川西北高原草原的适用性研究

陈超^1,2, 李秋月³, 郭斌^1,4, 庞艳梅¹

1. 中国气象局成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室, 四川成都 610072;
2. 南方丘区节水农业研究四川省重点实验室, 四川成都 610066;
3. 北京市气候中心, 北京 100089;
4. 四川省阿坝州气象局, 四川马尔康 624000

收稿日期:2018-01-31 修回日期:2019-05-20 出版日期:2019-06-15 发布日期:2019-07-19
通讯作者: 郭斌
作者简介:陈超(1982-),男,湖南人,博士,正高级工程师,主要从事气候变化影响评价、生物气候模型与信息系统的研究,E-mail:chenchao16306@sina.com
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划课题（2017YFC0504903）；高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目（省重实验室2018-重点-05-10）；国家自然科学基金项目（41775159）；中国气象局成都高原气象研究所基本科研费业务项目（BROP201817）资助

Validation and Adaptability Evaluation of Grassland Ecosystem Model CENTURY in the Northwest Plateau of Sichuan Province

CHEN Chao^1,2, LI Qiu-yue³, GUO Bin^1,4, PANG Yan-Mei¹

1. Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu/Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu, Sichuan Province 610072, China;
2. Provincial Key Laboratory of Water-Saving Agriculture in Hill Areas of Southern China, Chengdu, Sichuan Province 610066, China;
3. Beijing Regional Climate Centre, Beijing 100089, China;
4. Aba Prefecture Meteorological Administration, Maerkang, Sichuan Province 624000, China

Received:2018-01-31 Revised:2019-05-20 Online:2019-06-15 Published:2019-07-19

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用草地生态模型评价气候变化对草地生产力的影响，对于草地的可持续利用有重要意义。本文选取川西北高原的石渠和若尔盖为代表站点，基于试验站多年牧草观测资料，对草地生态系统模型（CENTURY）在川西北高原草地的适用性进行研究。结果表明：CENTURY模型模拟的石渠和若尔盖牧草地上部生物量的模拟值与观测值比较吻合，决定系数分别为0.85和0.48，均通过了0.05的显著性检验，均方根误差分别为5.4 g·m^-2和122.4 g·m^-2，CENTURY模型能够较好的模拟牧草地上部生物量，适用于气候变化对川西北高原草地生产力的影响研究。基于验证后的CENTURY模型对1961-2017年牧草地上生物量的模拟结果显示，近57年来石渠和若尔盖牧草地上生物量均呈显著增加趋势，增加速率分别为5.4 g·m^-2·（10a）^-1和17.2 g·m^-2·（10a）^-1。

关键词: CENTURY模型, 适用性, 验证, 川西北高原, 草地

Abstract: It is very important for sustainable utilization of grassland to study the impact of climate change on grassland productivity based on grassland ecosystem model. In this paper,Shiqu (32.98° N,98.10° E) and Ruoergai (33.58° N,102.97° E) were selected as representative sites in Northwest plateau of Sichuan province. The long-term observation data of grassland biomass from the livestock meteorological experiment stations were used to calibrate and validate the grassland ecosystem model (CENTURY). The results showed that there was a close consistency between the simulated and measured above-ground biomass at Shiqu and Ruoergai. The determination coefficients were 0.85 and 0.45 (P<0.05). Relative mean square roots were 5.4 g·m^-2 and 122.4 g·m^-2. The CENTURY model could be used to simulate pasture above-ground biomass and thereafter study the impact of climate change on grass productivity in Northwest plateau of Sichuan province. The changes of grassland above-ground biomass at Shiqu and Ruoergai were simulated during the past 57 years (1961-2017) based on CENTURY model. The simulation results displayed that the grassland above-ground biomass during the past 57 years increased significantly at Shiqu and Ruoergai,and the increasing rates were 5.4 g·m^-2·(10a)^-1 and 17.2 g·m^-2·(10a)^-1,respectively.

Key words: CENTURY model, Suitability, Validation, Northwest plateau of Sichuan province, Grassland

中图分类号:

S812

陈超, 李秋月, 郭斌, 庞艳梅. CENTURY模型在川西北高原草原的适用性研究[J]. 草地学报, 2019, 27(3): 711-718.

CHEN Chao, LI Qiu-yue, GUO Bin, PANG Yan-Mei. Validation and Adaptability Evaluation of Grassland Ecosystem Model CENTURY in the Northwest Plateau of Sichuan Province[J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2019, 27(3): 711-718.

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CENTURY模型在川西北高原草原的适用性研究

Validation and Adaptability Evaluation of Grassland Ecosystem Model CENTURY in the Northwest Plateau of Sichuan Province

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