当前(1970—2000)与未来气候变化情境下中国醉马芨芨草潜在分布预测

doi:10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2022.10.021

草地学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (10): 2712-2720.DOI: 10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2022.10.021

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当前(1970—2000)与未来气候变化情境下中国醉马芨芨草潜在分布预测

黄睿杰, 张春艳, 温雨婷, 吴晨晨, 路浩, 赵宝玉

西北农林科技大学动物医学院, 陕西杨凌 712100

收稿日期:2022-05-11 修回日期:2022-06-13 发布日期:2022-11-05
通讯作者: 赵宝玉,E-mail:Zhaobaoyu12005@163.com
作者简介:黄睿杰(1997-),男,汉族,贵州贵阳人,硕士研究生,主要从事动物有毒植物中毒病致病机理与防控研究,E-mail:18786719121@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(32072928)；科技援青专项(2020-QY-210)资助

Predicting the Habitats of Achnatherum inebrians in China under Current (1970—2000) and Future Climate Conditions

HUANG Rui-jie, ZHANG Chun-yan, WEN Yu-ting, WU Chen-chen, LU Hao, ZHAO Bao-yu

College of Veterinary Medicine, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi Province 712100, China

Received:2022-05-11 Revised:2022-06-13 Published:2022-11-05

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 醉马芨芨草(Achnatherum inebrians)是我国西北、华北地区严重危害草地畜牧业和生态安全的主要毒害草之一，但其在药用、造纸、脱毒后饲用等方面有一定利用价值。本研究利用优化的MaxEnt模型预测了当前(1970—2000年)条件下和未来(2050 s和2070 s)4种气候变化情景下的醉马芨芨草潜在分布。结果显示：影响当前醉马芨芨草分布的关键环境变量与其适生阈值为12月平均最高气温(—7.5~7.9℃)、海拔(1 053.8~4 590.9 m)、最冷季降水量(1.6~24.6 mm)和降水量变异系数(25.5~111.5)；当前醉马芨芨草主要分布于新疆、西藏、四川、青海、甘肃、内蒙古、宁夏、陕西和山西等省区；在未来4种气候情景下，醉马芨芨草适生区面积均会增加，并向高纬度和高海拔地区迁移。研究为醉马芨芨草的防治和资源利用、草地生态学研究和草地放牧管理提供了理论依据和参考。

关键词: 醉马芨芨草, MaxEnt模型, 气候变化, 毒害草防控, 草地畜牧业

Abstract: Achnatherum inebrians is one of the major poisonous weeds that seriously endangers grassland animal husbandry and ecological security in the Northwest and North China,but has some use in medicinal use,paper making,and post-detoxification forage. The study used an optimized MaxEnt model to predict the potential distribution of A. inebrians under current (1970-2000) conditions and four future (2050 s and 2070 s) climate change scenarios. The results showed that:the key environmental variables affecting the current distribution of A. inebrians and its fitness threshold were December average maximum temperature (-7.5~7.9℃),elevation (1 053.8~4 590.9 m),precipitation of coldest quarter (1.6~24.6 mm) and precipitation seasonality (25.5~111.5). At current,A. inebrians was mainly distributed in Xinjiang,Tibet,Sichuan,Qinghai,Gansu,Inner Mongolia,Ningxia,Shannxi,Shanxi provinces. In the future,under four climate scenarios,the area of suitable habitat of A. inebrians will increase and move to higher latitudes and elevations. The results of the study will provide a theoretical basis and reference for the control and resource utilization of A. inebrians,grassland ecology research,and grassland grazing management.

Key words: Achnatherum inebrians, MaxEnt model, Climate change, Prevention and control, Grassland animal husbandry

中图分类号:

S812.6

黄睿杰, 张春艳, 温雨婷, 吴晨晨, 路浩, 赵宝玉. 当前(1970—2000)与未来气候变化情境下中国醉马芨芨草潜在分布预测[J]. 草地学报, 2022, 30(10): 2712-2720.

HUANG Rui-jie, ZHANG Chun-yan, WEN Yu-ting, WU Chen-chen, LU Hao, ZHAO Bao-yu. Predicting the Habitats of Achnatherum inebrians in China under Current (1970—2000) and Future Climate Conditions[J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2022, 30(10): 2712-2720.

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当前(1970—2000)与未来气候变化情境下中国醉马芨芨草潜在分布预测

Predicting the Habitats of Achnatherum inebrians in China under Current (1970—2000) and Future Climate Conditions

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