草地学报

草地学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (9): 2973-2991.DOI: 10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2025.09.022

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化情景下新疆草地类常见植物潜在分布格局模拟

靳连武1, 赵金2, 邵倩影3, 纪宝明4, 李雪锋5, 李凯辉2,6, 隋晓青1, 公延明2,6   

  1. 1. 新疆农业大学草业学院, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830052;
    2. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011;
    3. 新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830054;
    4. 北京林业大学草业与草原学院, 北京 100083;
    5. 新疆维吾尔自治区不动产登记中心, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002;
    6. 巴音布鲁克草原生态系统新疆野外科学观测研究站, 新疆 巴音郭楞蒙古自治州 841314
  • 收稿日期:2024-10-21 修回日期:2024-12-02 出版日期:2025-09-15 发布日期:2025-09-22
  • 通讯作者: 隋晓青，E-mail：sxq303@163.com；公延明，E-mail：gongym@ms.xjb.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:靳连武（1999-），女，汉族，青海乐都人，硕士研究生，主要研究领域草原生态学，E-mail：jinlianwu_20@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    第三次新疆综合科学考察项目（2022xjkk0403）资助

Simulation of Potential Distribution Patterns of Common Plant Species in Xinjiang Grassland under Climate Change Scenarios

JIN Lian-wu1, ZHAO Jin2, SHAO Qian-ying3, JI Bao-ming4, LI Xue-feng5, LI kai-hui2,6, SUI Xiao-qing1, GONG Yan-ming2,6   

  1. 1. College of Prataculture, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830052, China;
    2. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China;
    3. School of Geography and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830054, China;
    4. College of Prataculture and Grassland, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China;
    5. Real Estate Registration Center of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830002, China;
    6. Bayinbuluk Alpine Grassland Observation and Research Station of Xinjiang, Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, Xinjiang 841314, China
  • Received:2024-10-21 Revised:2024-12-02 Online:2025-09-15 Published:2025-09-22

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摘要： 探究新疆草原常见植物分布格局及其气候影响因素，有助于促进草原的可持续发展。本研究利用最大熵模型（Maximum Entropy Model，MaxEnt）和地理信息系统，基于32种植物地理分布数据及19个生物气候因子，结合AUC值验证模型精度。研究表明，在高海拔地区，降水对牧草影响显著，如蒿叶猪毛菜（Oreosalsola abrotanoides）和博洛塔绢蒿（Seriphidium borotalense）的分布主要受年降水量的影响，而伊犁绢蒿（Seriphidium transiliense）和新疆银穗草（Leucopoa olgae）则更多受年平均温度影响；未来气候情景预测表明，适生区面积整体呈增大趋势。例如，SSP126情景下，骆驼刺（Alhagi camelorum）在新疆南部向西北部扩张，扩张率为2.27%，而穗状寒生羊茅（Festuca kryloviana）在塔城、哈密北部以及克州等地有所减少，缩减率为1.69%；SSP245情景下，盐爪爪（Kalidium foliatum）向新疆北部地区扩张，扩张率为2.22%。大叶白麻（Poacynum hendersonii）向塔里木盆地扩增，扩张率为10.98%。MaxEnt模型在两种气候情景下模拟精度值均大于0.85，表现出较高的可信度。本研究为新疆常见植物的可持续利用与保护提供了重要依据。

关键词: 天然牧草, 适生区, MaxEnt模型, 生物气候因子, 气候变化

Abstract: Explorating the distribution patterns of common plants in Xinjiang grassland and the influence of climate factors are conducive to strengthening the sustainable development of grassland. Based on the geographic distribution data of 32 plants and 19 bioclimatic factors， the accuracy of the model was verified by combining AUC value. The results showed that precipitation had a significant effect on forage in high altitude areas. For example， the annual precipitation mainly affected the forage grass of Oreosalsola abrotanoides and Seriphidium borotalense. Seriphidium transiliense and Leucopoa olgae were more affected by the annual mean temperature. The prediction of future climate scenario shows that the area of suitable area will increase as a whole. For example， under the SSP126 scenario， Alhagi camelorum expanded to the northwest in southern Xinjiang with an expansion rate of 2.27%. However， the spike of Festuca kryloviana decreased in Tacheng prefecture， northern Hami area and Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture， with a reduction rate of 1.69%. Under the SSP245 scenario， Kalidium foliatum expanded to northern Xinjiang， with an expansion rate of 2.22%. Poacynum hendersonii expanded to Tarim Basin with an expansion rate was 10.98%. The simulation accuracy of MaxEnt model are both greater than 0.85 under the two climate scenarios， showing high reliability. This study provides an important basis for the sustainable utilization and protection of common plants in Xinjiang.

Key words: Natural forage, Suitable area, MaxEnt model, Bioclimatic factors, Climate change

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