Abstract: It is crucial to understanding the effects of climate change on the distribution of terrestrial ecosystem for the environmental protection following climate change.The alpine meadow is an ecosystem type sensitive and vulnerable to climate change.To understand the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of alpine meadows,the effects of climate change on the suitable climatic distribution region of alpine meadows in Qinghai-Tibet plateau were analyzed using Holdridge Life Zone System under climate change scenarios of A1,A2,B1 and B2.The results show that climate change in China would cause a decrease in the suitable climatic distribution region of alpine meadows under baseline climate scenario,an increase in the new suitable climatic distribution region of alpine meadows,while no change in total suitable climatic distribution region of alpine meadows.And climate change in China would also cause a decrease in the minimum,maximum,and median of suitable climatic distribution region of alpine meadows under baseline climate scenario,an increase in the minimum,maximum and median of new suitable climatic distribution region of alpine meadows,and no change in the minimum,maximum and median of total suitable climatic distribution region of alpine meadows.Additionally,following climate change,the south of suitable climatic distribution region of alpine meadows under baseline climate scenario would reduce,and new suitable climatic distribution region would expand mainly towards west and northwest of suitable climatic distribution region of alpine meadows under baseline climate scenario,and they were the highest in A1 scenario and the lowest in B1 scenario among climate change scenarios of A1,A2,B1 and B2 following climate change.Following climate change,the change of the suitable climatic distribution region under baseline climate scenario,new suitable climatic distribution region,and total suitable climatic distribution region of alpine meadows were all positively correlated with the changes in annual mean air temperature and precipitation in China,and the effects of increasing annual mean air temperature in China were higher than that of increasing annual precipitation.The results indicate that climate change in China would cause a decrease in the distribution region under baseline climate scenario and an increase in the expanding distribution region of alpine meadows,and the spatial distribution pattern would change greatly.

Key words: Climate change, Alpine meadows, Suitable climatic distribution region

摘要： 为确定气候变化对高寒草甸分布范围的影响,以Holdridge生命地带性分类系统,采用A1、A2、B1、B2气候变化情景,分析了气候变化对我国高寒草甸潜在适宜气候分布范围的影响.结果显示:气候变化下,高寒草甸基准情景下适宜气候分布范围将减少,新适宜气候分布范围将增加,总的适宜气候分布范围变化不大,其中A1、A2情景下变化较大,B1、B2气候情景下变化较小;高寒草甸在基准情景下适宜气候分布范围的最小、最大值与中位数都将减少,新适宜气候扩展范围的最小、最大值与中位数将增加,总的适宜气候分布范围的最小、最大值与中位数变化不大;高寒草甸基准情景下适宜气候分布区南部范围将缩小,新的适宜气候分布范围将主要朝西部和西北部方向扩展,其中A1情景下变化最大,B1情景下变化较小;高寒草甸基准情景下适宜气候分布范围和新的适宜气候分布范围与我国年均气温变化和年降水量变化呈现正相关性.从而预测,气候变化使高寒草甸在基准情景下的气候分布范围将减小,新的适宜分布范围将扩大,空间分布格局将发生改变.

关键词: 气候变化, 高寒草甸, 气候适宜范围