Abstract: Integrated rate methodology(IRM) is based on the explanation the relationship among the components of organism or ecosystem,this methodology can make ultimate integrate factors in different dimensions with best elasticity,and can easily be used as a component of larger models.IRM has been applicated in many fields,such as plant growth,succession of community and ecological field.The objective of this study is to use model to predict production of agriculture and husbandry in agro-pastoral transition zone.We applied the integrated rate methodology with the theory of system coupling to analyze the agricultural structure and functions of Zhangjiakou Region,including predicting yield.The results showed that: according to the current modes of production,the grain yield could reach 1.88×10⁹ kg·a^-1,output of livestock products could reach 0.75×10⁹ kg·a^-1 and herbage yield could reach nearly 2.00×109 kg·a^-1 by the end of 2015;By simulating the subsystems coupling,output of livestock products can increase substantially,annual increment can reach 0.08×10⁹ kg,is 5.76 times that of the uncoupled model,however,annual increment of the grain yield changes a little,which rise about 0.01×10⁷ kg.IRM approach is based on the concept model of pasture,livestock and crop coupling systems,which realizes the quantitative and indexing analysis of coupling system,combining macro scale with micro scale.IRM approach has its unique advantage and demonstration significance for research methodology.

Key words: Agro-pastoral ecotone, Coupling of pasture, Livestock and crop systems, IRM, Transition rate

摘要： 通过模拟农牧交错带的农牧业生产情况,运用综合速率法(IRM)结合草-畜-田耦合的概念模型进行系统分析,以期预测农牧交错带张家口地区的结构和功能。结果表明:模拟当前的生产模式,到2015年,预测粮食年产量可达到1.88×10⁹kg,畜产品达到0.75×10⁹kg,草产品达到近2.00×10⁹kg;子系统之间耦合后,畜产品产量大幅提升,年增长量达到0.08×10⁹kg,是耦合前的5.76倍,而耦合后粮食产量的增幅不大,年增长量仅比耦合前增加0.01×10⁷kg。综合速率法结合草-畜-田耦合的概念模型对系统的能物流模拟,实现了对耦合系统的数量化、指标化的研究,宏观与微观相结合,具有独到优势,在研究方法论上具有示范意义。

关键词: 农牧交错带, 草-畜-田耦合, IRM, 状态跃迁速率