Sustainable Development of Tibet Based on Emergy Ecological Footprint Model

doi:10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2019.03.024

Acta Agrestia Sinica ›› 2019, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (3): 702-710.DOI: 10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2019.03.024

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Sustainable Development of Tibet Based on Emergy Ecological Footprint Model

LI Wen-long¹, WEI Wei¹, SONG Yu¹, LIU Chen-li¹, SU Wen-liang¹, XU Jing², ZHU Gao-feng³

1. State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-Ecosystem., College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu Province 730020, China;
2. School of Agriculture and Forestry Economic and Management, Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics, Lanzhou, Gansu Province 730020, China;
3. College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou Unversity, Lanzhou, Gansu Province 730020, China

Received:2019-01-25 Revised:2019-05-10 Online:2019-06-15 Published:2019-07-19

基于能值生态足迹与灰色预测模型的西藏可持续性评价

李文龙¹, 魏巍¹, 宋瑜¹, 刘陈立¹, 苏文亮¹, 许静², 朱高峰³

1. 草地农业生态系统国家重点实验室, 兰州大学草地农业科技学院, 甘肃兰州 730020;
2. 兰州财经大学农林经济管理学院, 甘肃兰州 730020;
3. 兰州大学资源环境学院, 甘肃兰州 730020

通讯作者: 魏巍
作者简介:李文龙(1977-),男,甘肃兰州人,教授,博士,主要从事草地遥感与地理信息系统研究,E-mail:wllee@lzu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目（2018YFC0406602）；国家自然科学基金（41471450）；国家社会科学基金（14CJY010）；中央高校基本科研业务专项（lzujbky-2016-br05）；中央高校自由探索优秀研究生创新项目（Lzujbky-2016-zr0815；lzujbky-2018-it03）资助

Abstract

Abstract: As the world's third pole,the sustainable development of Qinghai-Tibet plateau is of great significance to the national ecological security. It's important to select appropriate method to evaluate its sustainability. In this paper,we applied a modified emergy ecological footprint model to analyze the sustainability situation of Tibet from 2005 to 2014,and used Grey Model to predict the future sustainability of Tibet and its prefecture-level cities from 2015 to 2024. The results showed that (1) the emergy carrying capacity per capita of Tibet decreased from 38.30 hm² to 33.81 hm²,and the emergy ecological footprint per capita increased from 6.83 hm² to 11.59 hm²,indicating a downward trend of the regional sustainability;however the ecological footprint index was more than 65%,illustrating that Tibet was currently still sustainable;(2) the ecological footprint of ten thousand yuan GDP,development capacity and ecological footprint diversity index showed the Tibet's resource utilization rate was improved and its economy developed rapidly,but the industrial structure was simple. (3) In the next 10 years,Tibet's sustainability will continue to decrease,but it will remain sustainable in general;in prefecture-level cities,Lhasa will become seriously unsustainable in 2020,and the other regions will be still sustainable. This paper quantitatively evaluated the current status of Tibet's environment and its future sustainability in hoping of providing references for sustainable development of alpine frigid areas.

Key words: Tibet, Emergy ecological footprint model, Emergy carrying capacity, Sustainable development, Grey forecasting model

摘要： 为清晰地了解青藏高原的生态现状及其未来的可持续性，本文改进了能值生态足迹模型，定量研究了西藏2005-2014年的可持续性，运用灰色预测模型，预测了西藏及其各地级市2015-2024年的可持续状态。结果表明：2005-2014年，西藏的人均生态承载力从38.30 hm²减少到33.81 hm²，人均生态足迹从6.83 hm²增加到11.59 hm²，生态盈余空间缩小，但生态足迹指数一直高于65%，当前的可持续性较强；万元GDP生态足迹、发展能力指数和生态足迹多样性指数表明西藏资源利用率提高、经济发展速度加快但是产业结构单一；在未来10年，西藏及其各地级市（除拉萨外）的可持续性持续降低，但整体仍处于可持续发展状态，拉萨在2020年将变为严重不可持续。本研究定量地评价了西藏生态环境现状及其未来的可持续性，以期对高寒地区的可持续发展研究提供参考价值。

关键词: 西藏, 能值生态足迹模型, 能值生态承载力, 可持续发展, 灰色预测模型

CLC Number:

X835

LI Wen-long, WEI Wei, SONG Yu, LIU Chen-li, SU Wen-liang, XU Jing, ZHU Gao-feng. Sustainable Development of Tibet Based on Emergy Ecological Footprint Model[J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2019, 27(3): 702-710.

李文龙, 魏巍, 宋瑜, 刘陈立, 苏文亮, 许静, 朱高峰. 基于能值生态足迹与灰色预测模型的西藏可持续性评价[J]. 草地学报, 2019, 27(3): 702-710.

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Sustainable Development of Tibet Based on Emergy Ecological Footprint Model

基于能值生态足迹与灰色预测模型的西藏可持续性评价

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