Abstract: In this study,through on-the-spot investigation,the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and environmental climate data were used to simulate the impact of future climate change on the spatial distribution pattern of the suitable growing region of Tibetan medicine Lamiophlomis rotata in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,and to explore the changing law of its suitable growing region. The analysis of the simulation results by ArcGIS and SPSS showed that the most suitable growing region of Lamiophlomis rotata under the current climate conditions were mainly distributed in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau between Sichuan and Tibet,Gansu and Qinghai,accounting for 24.87% of the total area of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,of which Tibet had the largest suitable growing region,followed by Sichuan and Qinghai,and Gansu and Yunnan have the smallest proportion. In the future,climate change will move the geometric center of the suitable growing region to the southwest by 97.1 km and its altitude will rise by 267 m. The expanded area of suitable growing region brought about by climate change is about twice of the degraded area. The area of the suitable growing region in all provinces was increaseing. Tibet had increased the most,followed by Sichuan and Qinghai,while Yunnan and Gansu had not changed much. If the climate warming continues to occur,the unique artificial domestication and introduction area should be selected in the relatively high altitude area,while the low altitude area is in risk of degradation. This study provides a reference for the introduction and domestication of wild endangered medicinal plants and resource protection in climate sensitive region.

Key words: Climate change, Lamiophlomis rotata, Suitable growing region, Niche model, GIS

摘要： 本研究通过实地调查，运用最大熵（MaxEnt）模型和环境气候数据模拟未来气候变化对青藏高原地区藏药独一味（Lamiophlomis rotata（Benth.）Kudo）适生区空间分布格局的影响，探索其适生区变迁规律。通过ArcGIS和SPSS对模拟结果分析显示，当前气候条件下独一味最适宜生长地区主要分布于青藏高原地区的四川与西藏，甘肃与青海交界处，占青藏高原总面积的24.87%，其中西藏自治区适生区面积最大，其次是四川和青海，甘肃和云南占比最小；未来气候变化使适生区几何中心向西南方向迁移97.1 km，且海拔上升267 m；气候变化带来的适生区扩大面积约为退化面积的2倍，各省适生区面积均呈现增加，西藏增加最多，其次是四川，青海略有增加，云南和甘肃变化不大；如果气候变暖持续发生，人工引种驯化应选择海拔相对较高区域，而低海拔地区由于退化风险，应作为物种保护区域重点监测。本研究将为气候敏感地区野生濒危药用植物的引种驯化及资源保护提供参考依据。

关键词: 气候变化, 独一味, 适生区, 生态位模型, GIS