Abstract: Good or bed is usually taken as a standard for harvest of annual yearly output of forage.This arti cle discussed the output through quadratic discriminant analysed method and established the mathematic mod el between the output and meteorological factors: GW’= -26.2012AT² - 0.0138RP² + 1.2144AT· RP+ 280.9599AT - 6.4936RP The results showed that, the estimate rate was 100%, The correlationship was very remarkable between estimate and observed data (P<0.01 ), and discriminant rate and effect were excellent.Meteorological fac tors principal components of which effect on the above-ground net production were analysed by building math ematic model, and the main factor which had effect on net production was the atmospheric temperature in alpine meadow.

Key words: Kobresia humilis meadow, Net production, Meteorological condition, Quadratio model, Mathematic model

摘要： 人们在牧草年景行为的划分中,多以好、坏的感观标准来衡量。为此,本文通过二次型判别分析,建立牧草地上年净生产量与气象因子间的数学模型:GW＇＝-26.2012AT²-0.0138RP²+1.2144AT·RP+280.9599AT-6.4936RP结果表明:建立的二次型两级判别模型,拟合率达100%,呈极显著的相关水平(P<0.01),试报表明具有很好的准确性。本文还通过所建立的数学模型,分析了矮嵩草草甸地上年净生产量对气象因子所响应的主次成分,说明在高寒草甸地区热量条件是影响牧草净生产量的主要因素。

关键词: 矮嵩草草甸, 净生产量, 气象条件, 二次型, 数学模型