Abstract:

In order to explore the distributional difference of China's food demands in provincial scale and their inner connection, research was made in this article upon the difference of per capita demands in grain ration, grain-consuming animal and grass-consuming animal, and the spatial econometrics method was adopted to assist in the analysis of relation of per capita food demand volume in each province in 2012. The research results showed that:the per capita consuming volume of grain ration maintained a continuous declination and the per capita consuming volume of grain-consuming animal by-products and grass-consuming animal by-products maintained a continuous increase from 1998 to 2013; the per capita consuming volume of grain ration took on an obvious staircase distribution, increasing step-by-step from Northeast China to Southwest China; the per capita consuming volume of grain-consuming animal followed the rule of being small in Central China and being large in North and West China; the per capita consuming volume of grass-consuming animal followed the rule of being more in Western China than in Mid-East China where it's small in Central region and large in North and West regions; the correlation analysis showed that:the per capita consuming volume of grain ration and the per capita consuming volume of grain-consuming animal were of negative correlation, and the per capita consuming volume of grain ration and the per capita consuming volume of grass-consuming animal were of positive correlation; and the spatial correlation analysis showed that:the per capita consuming volumes of such thee food were of prominent negative spatial correlation. It was thus clear that the food demands of each Chinese province were of remarkable difference and regional features. Thereby, to choose different food safety strategy for different regions was an important basis upon which China's food safety is guaranteed and economic development was stabilized.

Key words: Food security, Food equivalent unit, Food demand, Spatial correlation

摘要：

为探究我国食物需求在省域尺度上的分布差异与内在联系，本文研究了我国不同年份的口粮、耗粮型畜产品和草食畜产品人均需求的差异，并辅以空间计量方法分析2012年各省份人均食物需求量的关系。研究结果表明：从1998到2013年，口粮人均消费量持续下降，耗粮型畜产品和草食畜产品人均消费量持续增长；口粮人均消费量呈明显的阶梯状分布，从东北向西南逐级递增；耗粮型畜产品人均消费量总体呈现中部少南北多的规律；草食畜产品人均消费量西部高于中东部地区，在中东部地区又呈现中部少，南北多的趋势；相关性分析表明：2012年口粮与耗粮型畜产品人均消费量负相关，口粮与草食畜产品正相关；空间相关性分析表明：三种食物人均消费量均具有显著的空间正相关性。可见，我国各省份食物需求具有明显的差异性和区域性。因此，针对不同的区域选择不同的粮食安全策略，是保障我国粮食安全，稳定经济发展的重要依据。

关键词: 食物安全, 食物当量, 食物需求, 空间相关性