Abstract: The analysis of herdsmen's livelihood risk and its influencing factors is of great significance to reduce herdsmen's livelihood vulnerability and the negative impact of livelihood risk. Using 468 questionnaires and binary logistic regression model,this paper empirically studied the livelihood risk and its influencing factors of herdsmen in national parks. The results showed that the herders in Qilian Mountain National Park were affected by various livelihood risks,such as employment risk,market risk,health risk,pension risk and environmental risk,and family asset endowment to varying degrees. The livelihood risk was in the order of employment risk > market risk > health risk > pension risk > environmental risk. Education level,annual household income,number of livestock,grassland area and grassland degradation were significant factors affecting livelihood risk. Therefore,measures such as increasing government employment support policies,encouraging pastoral households to actively participate in cooperative organizations and perfecting rural cooperative medical insurance system could improve the livelihood of pastoral households.

Key words: National Park, Livelihood risk of herdsmen, Family asset endowment, Binary logistic regression model, Qilian Mountains

摘要： 分析牧户生计风险及其影响因素，对于降低牧户生计脆弱性和减少生计风险负面影响等方面具有重要意义。利用专题调研的468份问卷，运用二元Logistic回归模型实证研究国家公园牧户生计风险及其影响因素。研究结果表明：祁连山国家公园牧户面临就业风险、市场风险、健康风险、养老风险和环境风险等多种生计风险的冲击，并且受到家庭资产禀赋不同程度的影响；生计风险按照严重程度依次为：就业风险>市场风险>健康风险>养老风险>环境风险；牧户家庭资产禀赋中的受教育程度、家庭年收入、牲畜数量、草地面积和草场退化情况等是影响其生计风险的显著因素。因此，加大政府就业扶持政策、鼓励牧户积极参与合作组织和完善农村合作医疗保险体系等措施，可改善牧户生计。

关键词: 国家公园, 牧户生计风险, 家庭资产禀赋, 二元Logistic回归模型, 祁连山