Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas of Elymus atratus and Elymus purpuraristatus in China under Climate Change Scenarios

doi:10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2025.07.025

Acta Agrestia Sinica ›› 2025, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (7): 2309-2319.DOI: 10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2025.07.025

Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas of Elymus atratus and Elymus purpuraristatus in China under Climate Change Scenarios

LEI Jie-qiong¹, LIU Yu-ping^1,2,3, SU Xu^1,2,3, GAO Xuan-lin¹, LYU Yang¹, ZHENG Ying-hui¹, SUN Cheng-lin¹, CAIRANG Zha-xi¹, FENG Xu¹, LI Jia-huan¹, DONG Ying-wen¹

1. School of Life Sciences, Qinghai Normal University, Xining, Qinghai Province 810008, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Biodiversity Formation Mechanism and Comprehensive Utilization of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in Qinghai Province, Qinghai Normal University, Xining, Qinghai Province 810008, China;
3. Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, Qinghai Normal University, Xining, Qinghai Province 810016, China

Received:2024-10-28 Revised:2024-12-05 Online:2025-07-15 Published:2025-07-18

气候变化背景下黑紫披碱草和紫芒披碱草在中国的潜在适生区预测

雷洁琼¹, 刘玉萍^1,2,3, 苏旭^1,2,3, 高宣琳¹, 吕扬¹, 郑莹晖¹, 孙成林¹, 才让扎西¹, 冯旭¹, 李佳欢¹, 董英雯¹

1. 青海师范大学生命科学学院, 青海西宁 810008;
2. 青海师范大学青海省青藏高原生物多样性形成机制与综合利用重点实验室, 青海西宁 810008;
3. 青海师范大学高原科学与可持续发展研究院, 青海西宁 810016

通讯作者: 苏旭,E-mail:xusu8527972@126.com
作者简介:雷洁琼（2001-），女，汉族，山西长治人，硕士研究生，主要从事高山植物系统与进化研究，E-mail：ljq3328@163.com
基金资助:
青海省重大科技专项（2023-SF-A5）；2023年中央林业草原生态保护恢复资金野生动植物保护项目（QHSY-2023-016）；青海省省财政林业改革发展资金林草新技术推广项目（QSCZ-2023-001）资助

Abstract

Abstract: Elymus atratus and Elymus purpuraristatus are two kinds of the key second-class protected plants in China. In the present study， we studied the potential distribution of E. atratus and E. purpuraristatus under the current climate condition （1970—2000） and future climate backgrounds （2021—2040， 2041—2060， 2061—2080， 2081—2100） with MaxEnt model. The results indicated that （1） The altitude （2524.94-4118.83 m）， mean temperature of warmest quarter （8.43-14.75℃） and temperature seasonality （574.91~890.01℃） were the main environmental factors influencing the suitable distribution of E. atratus， while the annual mean temperature （0.31-6.91℃）， mean temperature of coldest quarter （-11.57--3.16℃） and altitude （1483.81-3759.22 m） were the main environmental variables affecting suitable distribution of E. purpuraristatus. （2） Under the current climate conditions， the total suitable area of E. atratus was 288.61×10⁴ km²， and the suitable distribution of E. atratus was mainly located in the Qilian Mountain and Hengduan Mountain， whereas the total suitable area of E. purpuraristatus was 343.86×10⁴ km²， and the suitable distribution of E. purpuraristatus was mainly distributed in the Kunlun Mountain and A-erh-chin Mountain. （3） In the future scenario， the suitable area of E. atratus and E. purpuraristatus showed a downward trend. The distribution center of E. atratus moved towards the southwest， while that of E. purpuraristatus migrated towards the northeast. The study provided the theoretical basis for protecting germplasm resources and achieving sustainable development of E. atratus and E. purpuraristatus in the future.

Key words: MaxEnt model, Elymus, Potential distribution, Spatial pattern, Centroid transfer

摘要： 本研究基于MaxEnt模型预测了国家二级保护植物黑紫披碱草（Elymus atratus）和紫芒披碱草（Elymus purpuraristatus）当前（1970—2000年）和未来（2021—2040年、2041—2060年、2061—2080年、2081—2100年）时期的潜在适生区。结果表明：（1）影响黑紫披碱草适生区分布的主要环境因子为海拔（2524.94~4118.83 m）、最暖季度平均温度（8.43~14.75℃）和气温季节性变化方差（574.91~890.01℃）；影响紫芒披碱草分布的关键因素是年平均气温（0.31~6.91℃）、最冷季度平均温度（-11.57~-3.16℃）和海拔（1483.81~3759.22 m）。（2）当前黑紫披碱草的适生区面积为288.61×10⁴ km²，主要位于祁连山脉、横断山脉；紫芒披碱草的适生区面积为343.86×10⁴ km²，主要在昆仑山脉、阿尔金山脉。（3）未来情景下黑紫披碱草和紫芒披碱草的适生区面积总体呈下降趋势；黑紫披碱草的适生区质心/分布中心向西南迁移，紫芒披碱草向东北迁移。本研究结果为黑紫披碱草和紫芒披碱草种质资源保护及可持续利用提供了理论依据。

关键词: MaxEnt模型, 披碱草属, 潜在分布区, 空间格局, 质心转移

CLC Number:

S543.9

LEI Jie-qiong, LIU Yu-ping, SU Xu, GAO Xuan-lin, LYU Yang, ZHENG Ying-hui, SUN Cheng-lin, CAIRANG Zha-xi, FENG Xu, LI Jia-huan, DONG Ying-wen. Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas of Elymus atratus and Elymus purpuraristatus in China under Climate Change Scenarios[J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2025, 33(7): 2309-2319.

雷洁琼, 刘玉萍, 苏旭, 高宣琳, 吕扬, 郑莹晖, 孙成林, 才让扎西, 冯旭, 李佳欢, 董英雯. 气候变化背景下黑紫披碱草和紫芒披碱草在中国的潜在适生区预测[J]. 草地学报, 2025, 33(7): 2309-2319.

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Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas of Elymus atratus and Elymus purpuraristatus in China under Climate Change Scenarios

气候变化背景下黑紫披碱草和紫芒披碱草在中国的潜在适生区预测

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