Research on the Spatiotemporal Differentiation Characteristics and Prediction of Grassland Degradation in the Upper Reaches of the Yellow River Based on CA-Markov Model

doi:10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2026.06.025

Acta Agrestia Sinica ›› 2026, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (6): 2229-2241.DOI: 10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2026.06.025

Research on the Spatiotemporal Differentiation Characteristics and Prediction of Grassland Degradation in the Upper Reaches of the Yellow River Based on CA-Markov Model

ZHANG Yan^1,2, ZHANG Jia-qian^1,2

1. College of Land Engineering, Chang'an University, Xi'an, Shaanxi Province 710054, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Land Consolidation, Xi'an, Shaanxi Province 710054, China

Received:2025-06-17 Revised:2025-12-05 Published:2026-06-02

基于CA-Markov模型的黄河流域上游草地退化时空分异特征及预测研究

张艳^1,2, 张嘉倩^1,2

1. 长安大学土地工程学院, 陕西西安 710054;
2. 陕西省土地整治重点实验室, 陕西西安 710054

通讯作者: 张艳,E-mail:zyzhangyan@chd.edu.cn
作者简介:张艳(1978-),女,汉族,河北沧州人,副教授,主要从事土地资源管理、生态安全研究,E-mail:zyzhangyan@chd.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（41971033）；陕西省重大科技项目（2022ZDLSF07-05）资助

Abstract

Abstract: Taking the grassland in the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin as the research object， based on multi-source data from 2000 to 2023， the degradation problem was analyzed from the dual perspectives of “grassland coverage type transformation + degradation evaluation index system”， and the CA-Markov model was used to predict the future degradation pattern. The results showed that：（1） The grassland is mainly composed of medium coverage grassland. Over the past 23 years， the total area of grassland has decreased by 2201.60 km²， and the coverage conversion has fluctuated greatly， showing obvious spatial differentiation characteristics. （2） The proportion of un-degradation grassland has decreased from 59.77% to 54.62%， showed an overall “one decrease and three increases” degradation feature. Spatially， it presented a pattern of “low in the southwest and high in the northeast”， and the area of regions with increased degradation grades was larger than that of regions with decreased grades. （3） By 2030， the proportion of un-degradation grassland will further decline， while the proportions of mild， moderate and severe degradation grassland will increase， and the degradation trend will continue to intensify. The research can provide a scientific basis for regional grassland protection and management.

Key words: Grassland utilization dynamic changes, Grassland degradation, CA-Markov model, Upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin

摘要： 以黄河流域上游草地为研究对象，基于2000—2023年多源数据，结合“草地覆盖度类型转化+退化评价指标体系” 双视角解析退化问题，并运用CA-Markov模型预测未来退化格局。结果表明：（1）草地以中覆盖度草地为主，23年间草地总面积减少2201.60 km²，且覆盖度转换波动大，呈现明显的空间分异特征。（2）未退化草地面积占比由59.77%降至54.62%，整体呈“一降三升”退化特征。空间呈“西南低-东北高”格局，且退化等级升高区面积超过降低区。（3）至2030年，未退化草地比例进一步下降，轻、中、重度退化比例上升，退化态势持续加剧。研究可为区域草地保护与管理提供科学依据。

关键词: 草地利用动态变化, 草地退化, CA-Markov模型, 黄河流域上游

CLC Number:

S812.6

ZHANG Yan, ZHANG Jia-qian. Research on the Spatiotemporal Differentiation Characteristics and Prediction of Grassland Degradation in the Upper Reaches of the Yellow River Based on CA-Markov Model[J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2026, 34(6): 2229-2241.

张艳, 张嘉倩. 基于CA-Markov模型的黄河流域上游草地退化时空分异特征及预测研究[J]. 草地学报, 2026, 34(6): 2229-2241.

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Research on the Spatiotemporal Differentiation Characteristics and Prediction of Grassland Degradation in the Upper Reaches of the Yellow River Based on CA-Markov Model

基于CA-Markov模型的黄河流域上游草地退化时空分异特征及预测研究

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[3]	ZHAO Hai-dong, LIANG Hai-hong, HU Xiao-wen, FENG Yan-hao, CHANG Sheng-hua, LI Chun-jie, HOU Fu-jiang. The Preliminary Effects of Ecological Restoration Measures in Degraded Alpine Meadows were Evaluated based on Grassland Revegetation Index [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2025, 33(9): 3057-3067.
[4]	ZHANG Huan-huan, LI Lin-hao, CHEN De-wei, HE Qiu-xia, JIANG Jun-hong, YUAN Xin, SUN Fei-da. Characteristics of Soil Enzyme Activity and Enzyme Stoichiometric Ratio in Different Types of Alpine Grasslands in Northern Xizang [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2025, 33(8): 2482-2493.
[5]	SONG Wen-jie, ZHANG Hai-lan, Luozangangmao, Kazhuocairang, AI Dexiecuo, ZHOU Xi, XIANG Zhi-qiang, YU Wang, LI Wen-jin. Effects of Multi-year Rodent Eradication on Population Density of Plateau Pika and Plant Community Structure [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2023, 31(9): 2853-2859.
[6]	SUN Jian-bo, LI Cheng-yang, LAI Chi-min, CHEN Yang, CHEN Xiao-jie, ZHOU Jun, PENG Fei. Response and Its Influencing Factors of Soil Aggregates Carbon, Nitrogen and Phosphorus to the Degradation in Alpine Meadows [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2023, 31(4): 1106-1114.
[7]	XIAO Hai-long, MA Yuan, ZHOU Hui-cheng, ZHANG Cheng-jun, YAO Yu-jiao, CHEN Jian-gang, ZHANG De-gang. Characteristics of Soil Trace Elements and Vegetation and Their Relationships in Degraded Alpine Steppe in Sanjiangyuan Region [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2022, 30(8): 1925-1933.
[8]	MA Ya-chun, ZHANG Jie, GAO Ya-min, YAO Tuo, LI Hai-yun, LI Chang-ning, JIN Yan-li. Comprehensive Evaluation on Soil Nutrient Change Characteristics and Quality of Different Degraded Grasslands in Qilian Mountains [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2022, 30(7): 1621-1629.
[9]	ZHOU Chen-yu, YANG Xiao-yuan, SHAO Xin-qing, ZHANG Zhong-hua, MA Li, QIN Rui-min, SHE Yan-di, SU Hong-ye, CHANG Tao, WEI Jing-jing, HU Xue, LA Ben, ZHOU Hua-kun. Relationship Between Plant Species Diversity and Ecosystem Multifunctionality in Alpine Meadow with Different Degradation Degrees [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2022, 30(12): 3410-3422.
[10]	WANG Xiao-fen, WU Yu-xin, XIAO Hai-long, ZHANG Ge-fei, CHEN Jian-gang, ZHANG De-gang. Features of Soil Aggregates and Plant Interspecific Affinity along Degraded Alpine Grasslands in Three Rivers Region [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2021, 29(9): 2001-2009.
[11]	WANG Xiao-fen, MA Yuan, ZHANG Ge-fei, LIN Dong, ZHANG De-gang. Relationship between Plant Community Diversity and Ecosystem Multifunctionality During Alpine Meadow Degradation [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2021, 29(5): 1053-1060.
[12]	MA Hai-li, LIN Hui-long, XIONG Xiao-yu, HAN Xue-ping. The Impact of the Grassland Ecological Reward Policy on Grassland Vegetation in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2021, 29(3): 545-554.
[13]	YU Lan-hui, WANG Jie, LIAO Li-rong, ZHANG Chao, LIU Guo-bin. Soil Microbial Biomass,Enzyme Activities and Ecological Stoichiometric Characteristics and Influencing Factors along Degraded Meadows on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2020, 28(6): 1702-1710.
[14]	LI Xue-ping, LI Jian-hong, LIU Yong-gang, FAN Yu-xuan, ZHAO Shu-dong, LI Min-quan. The Vegetation and Soil Microorganism Characteristics of Different Degraded Grassland in Gannan Steppe [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2020, 28(5): 1252-1259.
[15]	LI Yi-kang, DU Yan-gong, ZHANG Zheng-zhi, LIN Li, GUO Xiao-wei, ZHANG Fa-wei, LI Qian, ZHOU Hua-kun, CAO Guang-min. Research Progresses on Seed Reseeding to Recover the Degraded Grassland [J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2017, 25(6): 1171-1177.