Effects of Compound Drought and Hot Events on the Forage Oats Production of Northern Shanxi

doi:10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2026.02.005

Acta Agrestia Sinica ›› 2026, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (2): 424-436.DOI: 10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2026.02.005

Effects of Compound Drought and Hot Events on the Forage Oats Production of Northern Shanxi

HE Shi-jia^1,2,3, CHENG Hua-qiang^1,2,3, LIU Peng^1,2,3, YANG Xuan^1,2,3

1. College of Grassland Science, Shanxi Agricultural University, Taigu, Shanxi Province 030801, China;
2. Shanxi Key Laboratory of Grassland Ecological Protection and Native Grass Germplasm Innovation, Youyu, Shanxi Province 037200, China;
3. Shanxi Youyu Loess Plateau Grassland Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Youyu, Shanxi Province 037200, China

Received:2025-04-14 Revised:2025-06-14 Published:2026-01-22

高温干旱复合事件对晋北饲用燕麦生产的影响

何世佳^1,2,3, 成华强^1,2,3, 刘鹏^1,2,3, 杨轩^1,2,3

1. 山西农业大学草业学院, 山西太谷 030801;
2. 草地生态保护与乡土草种质创新山西省重点实验室, 山西右玉 037200;
3. 山西右玉黄土高原草地生态系统定位观测研究站, 山西右玉 037200

通讯作者: 杨轩，E-mail:yangxuan2019@sxau.edu.cn
作者简介:何世佳（1999-），男，汉族，硕士研究生，主要从事田间粮草耦合与模型应用方向研究，E-mail:15048712840@163.com；
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目（32001404）；山西农业大学科技创新基金项目（2020BQ26）资助

Abstract

Abstract: To investigate the impact of compound drought and hot events （CH） on the productivity and phenology of forage oats （Avena sativa L.） in Shuozhou， and to explore how the accumulated temperature requirements during the growth period of forage oats should be adjusted for coping with such events， this study utilized validated APSIM （Agricultural Production System sIMulator）to conduct simulation analysis at six sites in Shuozhou within baseline and future scenarios in combination with climate model. Based on APSIM model validation （2023 aboveground biomass Normalized Root Mean Square Erro： 9.19%， 2022—2023 soil moisture NRMSE： 25.69%） and scenario simulations， the results indicate that future climatic hazards in Northern Shanxi will be intensified. By the 2070s， the frequency， duration， and intensity of CH would generally increase with a decreasing trend from east to west. This led to a reduction in forage oat yield of 2046.2 kg·hm^-2 during CH-occurring years compared to the multi-year average. Furthermore， the durations from emergence to initial flowering and from initial flowering to full flowering were prolonged by 0.97 days and 0.26 days， respectively. However， optimizing cultivar selection based on site-specific climate conditions could increase forage yield by 1.95% to 23.65%.The results of this study could provide a theoretical basis for forage oats production to cope with CH， and offer some guidance for breeding strategy and field management of forage oats in the future.

Key words: APSIM, Forage oats, Compound drought and hot event, Climate change

摘要： 为探究高温干旱复合事件（Compound drought and hot events，CH）对朔州饲用燕麦（Avena sativa L.）生产力及物候期的影响，并探讨为应对该类事件饲用燕麦的生育期积温需求应如何改变。为此，本研究基于验证的APSIM（Agricultural Production System sIMulator）模型，结合气候模型对历史及未来情景下朔州市6个站点进行模拟分析。基于APSIM模型验证及情景模拟，2023年地上生物量归一化均方根误差（Normalized root mean square erro，NRMSE）9.19%，2022—2023年土壤水分NRMSE 25.69%，结果表明：未来晋北地区气候危害加剧，2070s的CH频率、持续时间和强度总体升高且自东向西递减，导致发生CH年份的饲用燕麦产草量较多年平均低2046.2 kg·hm^-2，出苗至初花期和初花至盛花期分别延长0.97和0.26 d；但通过站点气候优化选育改良品种可提升产草量1.95%~23.65%。研究结果可为饲用燕麦应对CH提供理论基础，并为未来饲用燕麦的育种方向和生产管理提供一定的指导。

关键词: APSIM, 饲用燕麦, 高温干旱复合事件, 气候变化

HE Shi-jia, CHENG Hua-qiang, LIU Peng, YANG Xuan. Effects of Compound Drought and Hot Events on the Forage Oats Production of Northern Shanxi[J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2026, 34(2): 424-436.

何世佳, 成华强, 刘鹏, 杨轩. 高温干旱复合事件对晋北饲用燕麦生产的影响[J]. 草地学报, 2026, 34(2): 424-436.

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Effects of Compound Drought and Hot Events on the Forage Oats Production of Northern Shanxi

高温干旱复合事件对晋北饲用燕麦生产的影响

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