关键词: 农牧交错带, 草-畜-田耦合, IRM, 状态跃迁速率

Abstract: Integrated rate methodology(IRM) is based on the explanation the relationship among the components of organism or ecosystem,this methodology can make ultimate integrate factors in different dimensions with best elasticity,and can easily be used as a component of larger models.IRM has been applicated in many fields,such as plant growth,succession of community and ecological field.The objective of this study is to use model to predict production of agriculture and husbandry in agro-pastoral transition zone.We applied the integrated rate methodology with the theory of system coupling to analyze the agricultural structure and functions of Zhangjiakou Region,including predicting yield.The results showed that: according to the current modes of production,the grain yield could reach 1.88×10⁹ kg·a^-1,output of livestock products could reach 0.75×10⁹ kg·a^-1 and herbage yield could reach nearly 2.00×109 kg·a^-1 by the end of 2015;By simulating the subsystems coupling,output of livestock products can increase substantially,annual increment can reach 0.08×10⁹ kg,is 5.76 times that of the uncoupled model,however,annual increment of the grain yield changes a little,which rise about 0.01×10⁷ kg.IRM approach is based on the concept model of pasture,livestock and crop coupling systems,which realizes the quantitative and indexing analysis of coupling system,combining macro scale with micro scale.IRM approach has its unique advantage and demonstration significance for research methodology.

Key words: Agro-pastoral ecotone, Coupling of pasture, Livestock and crop systems, IRM, Transition rate