The Distribution of Plateau Pika (Ochotona Curzoniae) in Guoluo Prefecture, Qinghai Province and Its Response to Climate Change

doi:10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2024.06.026

Acta Agrestia Sinica ›› 2024, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (6): 1902-1912.DOI: 10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2024.06.026

The Distribution of Plateau Pika (Ochotona Curzoniae) in Guoluo Prefecture, Qinghai Province and Its Response to Climate Change

YANG Li-yan¹, SONG Mei-ling^1,2, WANG Yu-qin^1,2, WANG Hong-sheng^1,2, ZHOU Rui^1,2

1. College of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Science, Qinghai University, Xining, Qinghai Province 810016, Qinghai;
2. State Key Laboratory of Sanjiangyuan Ecology and Plateau Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Provincial-Ministerial Co-construction, Qinghai University, Xining, Qinghai Province 810016, Qinghai

Received:2023-12-04 Revised:2024-02-23 Published:2024-06-29

青海省果洛州高原鼠兔宜生区分布及其对气候变化的响应

杨丽艳¹, 宋梅玲^1,2, 王玉琴^1,2, 王宏生^1,2, 周睿^1,2

1. 青海大学畜牧兽医科学院(青海省畜牧兽医科学院), 青海西宁 810016;
2. 省部共建三江源生态与高原农牧业国家重点实验室, 青海大学, 青海西宁 810016

通讯作者: 周睿,E-mail:zhourui@qhu.edu.cn
作者简介:杨丽艳(1997-)，女，汉族，河北秦皇岛人，硕士研究生，主要从事草地有害生物防治方向研究
基金资助:
青海省科学技术厅项目(2022-ZJ-964Q)；青海大学青年科研基金项目(2021-QNY-7)；青海省“高端创新人才计划”(引进拔尖人才)；国家林草局草地啮齿动物危害防控创新团队资助

Abstract

Abstract: Studying the geographical distribution of plateau pikas and their responses to climate change is of great guiding significance for further understanding its role in the ecosystem. In this study,based on the information of existence points and environmental factor data of plateau pikas in Guoluo Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture of Qinghai Province,distribution models were used to predict the distribution range of plateau pikas in Guoluo Prefecture at present and future under three emission scenarios. The results showed that eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) had the highest ROC and TSS values. The climate factors that significantly affect the distribution of plateau pika are the wettest season precipitation,followed by annual temperature range and wettest month precipitation. Moreover,the current habitat suitability of plateau pika decreases with the increase of altitude and precipitation,and shows a trend of first increasing and then decreasing with the increase of temperature;Under the current climate conditions,the plateau pika is mainly distributed in the northwest of Guoluo Prefecture. In the future,under the influence of climate,the suitable habitat area for plateau pika will gradually decrease,while the suitable habitats will gradually concentrate in the northwest of Maduo County;In three greenhouse gas emission scenarios,the suitability of plateau pika decreases with increasing altitude and rainfall,while in the low emission scenario,the suitability of plateau pika increases with increasing temperature. In the medium to high emission scenario,the suitability of plateau pika decreases with increasing temperature.

Key words: Alpine meadow, Plateau pika, Species distribution model, Spatial distribution, Climatic factors

摘要： 研究高原鼠兔的地理分布及其对气候变化的响应，对进一步了解高原鼠兔在生态系统中作用意义重大。本研究利用青海省果洛州高原鼠兔存在点和环境因子数据，采用物种分布模型预测在3种排放背景下，当前与未来高原鼠兔宜生分布区。结果表明：极度梯度提升树(eXtreme Gradient Boosting，XGBoost)的ROC和TSS值最高，模型表现最佳；最湿季降水量对高原鼠兔分布的影响最大，其次为气温年较差和最湿月降水量，且高原鼠兔当前生境适宜度随海拔和降水量的增加而降低，而随气温的增加呈先增加后降低的趋势；当前气候条件下高原鼠兔主要分布在果洛州西北部，未来气候影响下高原鼠兔适宜生境面积逐渐减少，且适宜生境集中在玛多县西北部；在3种排放情景下，高原鼠兔适宜度随海拔和降雨量的增加而降低，而随着气温的升高，低排放背景下高原鼠兔适宜度增加，高排放背景下其适宜度降低。

关键词: 高寒草甸, 高原鼠兔, 物种分布模型, 空间分布, 气候因子

CLC Number:

S812.6

YANG Li-yan, SONG Mei-ling, WANG Yu-qin, WANG Hong-sheng, ZHOU Rui. The Distribution of Plateau Pika (Ochotona Curzoniae) in Guoluo Prefecture, Qinghai Province and Its Response to Climate Change[J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica, 2024, 32(6): 1902-1912.

杨丽艳, 宋梅玲, 王玉琴, 王宏生, 周睿. 青海省果洛州高原鼠兔宜生区分布及其对气候变化的响应[J]. 草地学报, 2024, 32(6): 1902-1912.

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The Distribution of Plateau Pika (Ochotona Curzoniae) in Guoluo Prefecture, Qinghai Province and Its Response to Climate Change

青海省果洛州高原鼠兔宜生区分布及其对气候变化的响应

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