草地学报

草地学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (3): 535-541.DOI: 10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2014.03.015

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

APSIM苜蓿模型在宁夏半干旱地区的适应性

奥海玮1, 谢应忠1, 李永宏2, 宋乃平1, 马建乐3, 马明德1   

  1. 1. 宁夏大学, 宁夏 银川 750021;
    2. 新西兰草地农业研究院草地研究中心, 新西兰北帕尔默斯顿 11008;
    3. 中国矿业大学银川学院, 宁夏 银川 750021
  • 收稿日期:2013-08-12 修回日期:2013-10-10 出版日期:2014-06-15 发布日期:2014-06-04
  • 通讯作者: 谢应忠
  • 作者简介:奥海玮（1977- ），女，陕西富平人，高级实验师，硕士，主要从事作物生长模型与模拟技术研究，E-mail：ahw@nxu.edu.cn；
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目（31160484）；宁夏大学211培育项目资助

Adaptability of APSIM Lucerne Model in Semiarid Area of Ningxia

AO Hai-wei1, XIE Ying-zhong1, LI Yong-hong2, SONG Nai-ping1, MA Jian-le3, MA Ming-de1   

  1. 1. Ningxia University, Yingchuan, Ningxia 750021, China;
    2. AgResearch, Grasslands Research Centre, Palmerston North 11008, New Zealand;
    3. China University of Mining and Technology Yinchuan College, Yinchuan, Ningxia 750021, China
  • Received:2013-08-12 Revised:2013-10-10 Online:2014-06-15 Published:2014-06-04

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摘要：

基于宁夏3个试验点的数据和同期气象资料，对APSIM模型在宁夏半干旱地区的适应性进行研究。根据试验条件建立相应模型，通过“试错法”对模型相关参数进行校准，实现参数的本地化；并运用多个检验统计指标验证紫花苜蓿（Medicago sativa）土壤含水量及其分别在同心和银川试验点的生育期和干草产量。结果表明：各生育期模拟值和实测值显著相关，决定系数R2分别为0.99和1.00，D值均为0.99，NRMSE分别为2.4%和7.8%；干草产量表现出良好的相关性和一致性，决定系数R2分别为0.82和0.98，D值均为0.99，NRMSE分别为7.1%和9.3%。模拟值比实测值平均高估了7.1%；土壤含水量整体表现出较好的相关性和一致性，决定系数R2为0.82，D为0.85，NRMSE为10%，模拟值比实测值平均高估了10.1%。产量的高估很有可能与水分的高估相关，需要更详细的测量田间试验数据，改善模型土壤参数描述，提高模型预测准确度。校准后的APSIM模型在宁夏半干旱地区具有较好的适应性，可以用于指导该区半干旱区苜蓿生产及栽培措施优化管理。

关键词: APSIM苜蓿模型, 固原苜蓿, 参数本地化, 适应性, 宁夏半干旱区

Abstract:

The performance of APSIM model in simulating soil moisture dynamics and plant growth and production for lucerne (Medicago sativa L.) crop was assessed against the crop observations from three sites in semi-arid Ningxia region of Western China. The model parameters for characterizing plant growth and development for local cultivar, Guyuan lucerne (Medicago sativa L. ‘Guyuan’), were specified or estimated using try-and-error methods based on the detailed observations at one site (Guyuan). Then the model performance in simulating crop phenological development and dry matter production was compared with the observations at another two sites (Tongxin and Yinchuan) to validate the model parameterization. The simulations used local meteorological data and soil profile description at each sites. The results showed that modeled plant phenological development (number of days from sowing to emergence, floral initiation and flowering) matched excellently with the observed at both sites (R2=0.99，D=0.99，NRMSE=2.4% at Tongxin and R2=1.00, D=0.99, NRMSE=7.8% at Yinchuan, respectively); modeled plant dry matter production agreed well with the observed (R2=0.82, D=0.99, NRMRE=7.1% at Tongxin and R2=0.98, D=0.99, NRMSE=9.3% at Yinchuan, respectively), though a slight overestimation (7.1% on average); and modeled soil moisture also agreed reasonably to the observed (R2=0.82, D=0.85, NRMSE=10%), also with a overestimation (10.1% on average). Slightly overestimation of plant production is most likely related with the overestimation of soil moisture, which suggests more detailed measurements being needed for describing soil profiles and improving model predictions. This model parameterization and validation provides the confidence for using the model to optimize crop management, and assess climate change impacts in the semiarid area of Ningxia.

Key words: APSIM-lucerne model, Guyuan lucerne, Model parameterization and validation, Adaptability, Semiarid area of Ningxia

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