关键词: 草场产权制度改革, 气候变化, 大牲畜养殖规模, 渐进性双重差分模型, 内蒙古

Abstract: Based on the statistical data of animal husbandry production and annual average temperature data of 33 pure animal husbandry banners and counties in Inner Mongolia from 1986 to 2021， the time-varying DID model was used to analyze the influence of grassland property right system reform and climate change on the scale of large livestock breeding in pastoral areas. The results showed that the reform of grassland property right system had a significant positive effect on the scale of large livestock breeding， of which， the household contract system of grassland had a positive effect on the scale of large livestock breeding， but the “three rights separation” reform had no significant effect on the scale of large livestock breeding. Climate change had a negative moderating effect on the relationship between property rights system and the scale of large livestock breeding. Therefore， the implementation of the reform of grassland property rights system has its positive effects， but it is necessary to further improve the policy to activate the property rights of grassland in pastoral areas and release the economic vitality of grassland animal husbandry. At the same time， strengthen long-term climate change monitoring and response， especially for the trend of annual average temperature change， and formulate corresponding animal husbandry adaptation strategies， such as the introduction of adaptable animal husbandry varieties and the improvement of breeding technology. In addition， a new pattern of coordinated development of grassland property rights system reform and climate change should be constructed to promote stable growth in the scale of large livestock farming.

Key words: The reform of grassland property right system, Climate change, Scale of large livestock breeding, Time-varying DID model, Inner Mongolia