Abstract: To scientifically evaluate the restoration potential of degraded desert grasslands and identify key influencing factors， this study utilized data from 28 sample plots in the temperate desert， temperate steppe desert， and temperate desert steppe zones of the Altay region， collecteding between 2020 and 2022. A comprehensive evaluation model for natural restoration potential was developed using hierarchical analysis and grey correlation evaluation， and incorporating 15 indicators across four sub-indices. Spatial distribution patterns were analyzed using a sliding window technique. The results revealed that： （1） The basic， current， future， and comprehensive natural restoration potentials of the temperate desert steppe were lower than those of the temperate steppe desert and temperate desert. （2） The restoration potential levels of the three grassland types primarily ranged from II to V （moderate to strong potential）， with no occurrence of level I （weak potential）. （3） The areas with level III （moderate potential） accounted for 68%， 75%， 50%， and 71% of the total desert grassland area for basic， current， future， and comprehensive natural restoration potentials， respectively. （4） The basic restoration potential had the strongest influence on the comprehensive restoration potential. These findings indicated that the natural restoration potential of desert grasslands in the Altay region iwas generally at a moderate level. Ecological restoration efforts should prioritize the basic restoration potential while integrating current and future potentials to formulate scientifically sound restoration strategies and technological frameworks. This study provides a theoretical foundation for the ecological restoration of degraded desert grasslands in the region.

Key words: Altai Desert steppe, Natural recovery potential, Spatial patterns, Analytic hierarchy process, Grey relational analysis, Altai Prefecture

摘要： 为科学评价退化荒漠类草地恢复潜力并明确其关键影响因素，本研究基于2020-2022年阿勒泰地区温性荒漠、温性草原化荒漠和温性荒漠草原的28个样地调查数据，利用层次分析法和灰色关联评价构建了基础、现状、未来和综合自然恢复潜力评价模型，并结合空间窗口滑动技术分析了其空间分布格局。结果表明：（1）温性荒漠草原的基础、现状、未来和综合自然恢复潜力均低于温性草原化荒漠和温性荒漠；（2）3类荒漠类草地的恢复潜力等级以Ⅱ~Ⅴ级（较弱~强恢复潜力）为主，未出现Ⅰ级（弱恢复潜力）；（3）基础、现状、未来和综合自然恢复潜力Ⅲ级（一般水平）面积占比分别为68%，75%，50%和71%；（4）基础恢复潜力对综合自然恢复潜力的影响最大。因此，阿勒泰地区荒漠类草地自然恢复潜力整体处于中等水平，在生态恢复过程中应以基础恢复潜力为核心，综合考虑现状和未来恢复潜力，制定科学合理的恢复对策与技术体系。

关键词: 荒漠草地, 自然恢复潜力, 空间格局, 层次分析法, 灰色关联分析, 阿勒泰地区